While history may not always seem the most accurate predictive tool available for the Hong Kong Derby, regimes used and paths trodden successfully in the past do offer interesting points of view on this year's race.
The Derby has changed in the last 17 runnings, significantly when the distance was lifted from 1,800m to 2,000m in the year 2000, but like any well-established race there are still some constants that contribute to a good performance.
One argument which cannot be ignored is fitness as a factor relative to usage. In other words, too little racing and your horses isn't tough enough. Too much and the risk is that he has no more upside available to draw on.
In the last 17 runnings of the Derby, only two horses, Oriental Express (1997) and Tea For Two (1987) have been able to win with less than five kilometres worth of racing for the season to that point.
On the other hand, only William's Coach had 10km or more of wear and tear prior to the race and he only just topped that number. Most often Derby winners have usually been through a campaign of four or five races totalling between 5km and 8km.
This year there are probably more runners with lengthy preparations - though none in the same ballpark as 2002 runner Danefactor, who had been 23km - and only Tiber (4.6km) is lining up with less than the required figure. At the other end of the scale, The Duke, Industrial Success, Liberal's Choice, Lucky Paradise, Ain't Here and Beethoven have all exceeded the 10km limit.