There is every reason to believe that the bombs which wrought such carnage in Madrid will be followed by similar attacks on European soil if, as seems increasingly likely, al-Qaeda was responsible. Last October, Osama bin Laden singled out Spain, Britain, Italy and Poland - the American allies in Iraq - in a message broadcast by the Al-Jazeera satellite channel. He rarely threatens without at least attempting to carry out such verbal attacks.
Spain was, and remains, at the top of his hit list since he belongs to the fundamentalist branch of Islam that will never forgive the Spaniards for expelling the Moors from Granada in 1492. Fervent Islamists believe it is their duty to recover all lands once ruled by Muslims. They regard any attack on a Muslim country as an attack on all Muslims, even if it is ruled by a man as evil and irreligious as Saddam Hussein.
The grievances of the centuries have been compounded by the impotence of the Arab states to defeat Israel and prevent the Taleban's destruction. Further, they have suffered insults such as the senseless stationing of young American women soldiers, carrying guns and wearing shorts, on the holy soil of Saudi Arabia.
These are more than sufficient reasons, in Islamic eyes, to carry the war into the heartlands of their enemies. The death and destruction their bombs inflict are, in their eyes, justifiable acts of war. There can be no doubt they will continue with their war after the success of the Madrid attack.
Authorities in the countries under threat are well aware of the dangers. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's steadfast support of US President George W. Bush's Iraqi policies, allied to Britain's historic role in the Middle East, makes Britain a prime target.
Stringent precautions are being taken, greater even than at the height of the IRA bombing campaign. But the bomber always has the advantage in such situations because he has the initiative. He can choose when and where to attack. The security authorities are alert to many of these attacks but, sooner or later, one will get through as it did in Madrid, despite the Spanish anti-terrorist police being on high alert for an attack by ETA, the Basque separatist group.
One aspect of the Madrid bombings that is causing great concern to anti-terrorist forces is that there was none of the customary mobile telephone 'chatter', which has so often signalled the run-up to an attack. The mobiles fell silent in Madrid, except for those that detonated the bombs.
