It's still about economics, Hong Kong
When I take a walk in the hills above the Quarry Bay cluster of high-rises that includes this newspaper's offices, I view a split screen of modernisation below and the relative constant of the bush around me. That is pretty much as I have seen Hong Kong through more than 30 years: expanding business and unchanging values. But recently, the bedrock economic side has faltered.
I remember when it was the norm that Hong Kong people worked hard to satisfy their hunger for success, when hardly any children were fat, and when even the girl walking in front of you in Central might spit on the pavement. At that time, foreigners seemed to have all the money. Property values were still stuck in the slumber before the pre-1997 boom.
That, in a nutshell, was the situation as I remember it in 1970. As hard tack as life in the colony may have seemed then, the people of Hong Kong were laying the foundation for success, first, economically, and, when the opportunity has arisen, politically (progress that will continue even if some aspirations are slow to be realised). Economics and politics, in that order, are an inseparable partnership. The aim back then was economic gain and personal achievement. It still is. The purest and most meaningful form of freedom was - and I maintain, still is - the ability to improve your economic status and give the next generation a head start. It was a truth that stood out starkly, of course, in colonial Hong Kong, where people were forbidden to practise politics.
Even with the change of sovereignty and current rumblings from Beijing, economic performance is paramount today in Hong Kong. Economics-first is a reality that many, transfixed by the high-profile, even glamorous clangour of politics and big-power rivalry, have lost sight of. In Hong Kong, one big change has taken place recently: in its quest for economic buoyancy, Hong Kong is now largely dependent on the mainland.
From the 1960s to the 1980s, there was no time, or place, for politics. Who needed it? Economic success paralleled that in other parts of Asia. It is the story of East Asia since the second world war. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, for example, had high growth rates that led - automatically, as economic success always does - to political liberalisation. Indeed, the economic path is the only way to ensure that basic rights are attained. Another right that beckons, subject to local realities, is participatory democracy. Typically, the first sign of its emergence is when an official of an unresponsive government makes a foolish suggestion that is roundly rejected by newly educated citizens. The point is that people - well-fed and housed, employed and educated - will demand a say in how their society is run.
We should not underrate the importance of good governance, without which people will quickly show impatience and alarm. Witness July 1 last year in Hong Kong, when 500,000 people marched, mainly for reasons of poor governance and the decline in their basic rights - which many, if not most, will equate with a fall in the value of their property or the loss of their job. Who can blame them for doing so?
The transformation in Hong Kong since 1997 has not only been about the handover and demands for political power. Most significantly, there has been an agonising weakening of basic rights and capabilities, largely economic ones. It is clear that Shanghai, like other places in the mainland, has every economic advantage going for it. If I had a few million dollars to invest in a business, why would I sink it into Hong Kong, unless the market was also the mainland? (Thanks, Cepa).
So when this government, taking its cue from Beijing, says we should concentrate on the economy, it is not talking through its hat. The economic fillip of the past six months is not a return to normalcy, but a temporary recovery. If we choose to ignore the economic message, get ready for a new slide in property prices and job creation.
Some people say that Beijing will not - cannot afford to - let Hong Kong falter economically, and that Hong Kong's new access to the burgeoning mainland economy will only grow. I hope they are right, and that I will see a new high rise pop up from time to time on my morning walk.
S. Wayne Morrison is an editor on the Post's opinion pages
