Building an MTR line to the southern and western parts of Hong Kong Island would generate $40 billion in economic benefits over the project's lifetime, says a University of Hong Kong study for the rail operator.
The study, released yesterday by the university's Centre of Urban Planning and Environmental Management, estimates a line from Sai Ying Pun through the Southern district to Admiralty would generate benefits of between $38 billion and $42 billion over 40 years at today's prices.
Of this, up to $22.7 billion was attributed to the increased value of properties near the line's eight proposed stations.
The study also estimates savings of $18.5 billion over the 40 years from reduced journey times and money saved due to fewer cars on the road, and thus fewer accidents, than if the line were not built. It also predicts that building the line would reduce air pollution, bringing health savings averaging $10 million a year.
Further, the study compares the benefits of building the rail line with those of building the proposed Route 7 coastal road between Western and Pokfulam. It concludes the rail line would be far more efficient than the highway.
The road is expected to cost about $12 billion to build, $3 billion less than the cost of an MTR line. But its passenger-carrying capacity would be lower. It is understood the MTR Corporation would want the government to pay up to half the cost of building the line, since funding it fully would not be financially viable for the company.