The false calm across the Taiwan Strait
If events along the Taiwan Strait seem too peaceful to be interesting these days, just wait a while: things will almost certainly get more exciting before long, perhaps uncomfortably so.
To be sure, increased tension is not the goal of any of the main players - Taiwan, Beijing and the United States. All three officially endorse an ambiguous 'status quo' as their key objective, at least for the short term.
By this, Beijing continues to claim Taiwan as a long-lost province, while Taipei keeps its distance but without declaring independence. The US, in the meantime, counsels restraint on both sides while pledging in an imprecise way to help Taiwan if Beijing ever attacks. All this is designed to keep the peace by putting off a resolution of basic issues indefinitely.
Unfortunately, in real life that status quo is anything but static. All three are doing things that could upset this careful arrangement and nudge them towards unwanted disputes. Outright hostilities remain extremely unlikely, but a period of unsettling tension could result, perhaps enough to shake the political calm of East Asia.
The leading protagonist is the newly re-elected Taiwanese President, Chen Shui-bian. Despite his narrow and perhaps lucky victory, he now insists he has a mandate to push ahead with constitutional reform and other political changes that Beijing fears are a prelude to declaring independence in 2008. Beijing has long declared that it would react with military force if Taiwan ever did so.
Yet the Chinese government is doing nothing new, useful or imaginative to make itself more appealing to the Taiwanese public. Rather, it continues to upgrade its armed forces and keeps adding to the 500 or so missiles deployed opposite Taiwan. On the political front, it sticks to a 'one country, two systems' offer that all major Taiwanese political groups reject completely. By sticking to these old and unsuccessful policies, Beijing in fact helps Mr Chen politically. It makes the mainland seem a determined menace, and reinforces a growing feeling among Taiwanese that their personal identity is something other than Chinese.
The US, meanwhile, is stuck in the middle. The so-called neoconservatives who dominate American foreign policy deeply distrust the ruling Chinese and all other communist parties. The visiting Vice-President, Dick Cheney, has just told Beijing that America will continue to provide Taipei with modern weapons to offset the mainland buildup. He also added something new: US support for Taiwan will be conditioned by how Beijing treats Hong Kong.
There is no shortage of suggestions about how to prevent the worst from happening. Taiwan and Beijing could agree on the pending 'three links' to expand trade, travel and other exchanges. They could begin long term, informal talks about creating a future 'one China', perhaps a loose federation or commonwealth. The two sides could sign confidence-building agreements to reduce military threats.
But so far, no policy innovations seem imminent and the forecast remains troubled.
Robert Keatley, now based in Washington, was the Post's editor from 1999 to 2001
