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Solid dividends could solve puzzle for carrier

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SCMP Reporter

The collective groan from investors is almost audible when one of China's big three telecom players lines up another network acquisition from its parent. Forget about tabulating earnings enhancements, a simpler rule of thumb is the further west or north you go into China's hinterland, the more meagre the rewards that await.

On Wednesday was China Mobile's turn, the first to list and first to complete the 31-piece mainland jigsaw as it adds 10 provinces from Xinjiang in the west to Gansu in the north. The 24.5 million new subscribers take China Mobile's subscriber count up to 166 million, cementing its status as the world's largest operator.

The common thread running through these networks is a picture of low-spending habits - more than 70 per cent of subscribers are on prepaid services that cost just 50 yuan a month. At least the new assets look cheap, priced at 9.6 times forecast earnings, versus the listed group's 12 times and they should boost earnings per share by 5 per cent to 6 per cent this year.

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The puzzle for China Mobile, however, is when will some of its prodigious free cash flow - up to 40 billion yuan this year - start coming back to investors in respectable dividends?

Not long ago, just being excused from funding these new networks might have been enough for investors. But with the days of buying sexy growth gone, it is the cash flow forgone for questionable gains that irks. Management crystallised contradictions in the company's growth by acquisition strategy in comments at its results announcement last month. Earnings growth would have been better were it not for its last acquisition, it said, while the dividend payout would also have been higher were it not for planned acquisitions.

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The latest acquisition is at least not going to be too much of a mouthful. After a US$2 billion up-front payment, the remaining US$1.6 billion will be staggered over 15 years. Acquired debts take the total cost of the transaction up to US$4.11 billion.

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