Grimaces in the Land of Smiles

Sarah Taylor takes a pull on her Singha beer, then pulls a face. 'I'm shattered, really. My boyfriend and I were supposed to be leaving tomorrow to do the whole southern island thing - Phuket, Koh Samui, Koh Phanghan. Now, we're just going to stay here and get drunk every day, I suppose. Or maybe we'll head north, away from the violence.' Ms Taylor, 23, is drinking in a hole-in-the-wall bar outside her guesthouse just off Khao San Road, Bangkok's backpacker Mecca, while she scans the local English-language papers. In one, the front page trumpets a senior policeman's estimate that 30,000 Muslim youths are ready to go on the rampage in the strife-wracked southern provinces; in the other, dire warnings of a widespread suicide bombing campaign. 'I'm not going anywhere near that lot,' says the engineering student from London. 'I'm sure the beaches are nice, but they're not worth getting blown up over.' 'Right,' nods her boyfriend, a lanky Australian also based in London, who prefers to be known as 'just Steve'. 'Why take the risk? I mean, we've been warned, right?' All around, in this bar and others on the famous strip, similar conversations are taking place. There are calls to embassies, last-minute cancellations of plans. In a year where Thailand's tourism operators were looking down the barrel of a post-Sars bonanza, it has all gone horribly wrong. At least it has for destinations in the vicinity of the bloody clash late last month between security forces and hundreds of gun and machete-wielding men which left 113 people dead in the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Songkhla. Following the attack, controversy raged as to whether it was the work of committed freedom fighters determined to carve a separate Muslim state from the south of Thailand or simply the misadventures of a rag-tag, drug-addled band of misfits manipulated by organised crime interests. Then, just days later, came the chilling warning that sent a shiver down the spine of every tourist with a southbound itinerary. Foreigners, warned a group purporting to speak for the separatist cause, should avoid the five Muslim-majority provinces bordering Malaysia, as well as the popular resort destinations of Phuket, Phi Phi, Krabi, Samui and Phang Nga. 'Persons who plan to visit Thailand are now warned not to travel to the Pattani Raya region, or the neighbouring provinces,' a statement from militant group Bersatu said, adding the ominous clause: 'Pattani people are not responsible for anything that happens to you after this warning.' In a separate statement, the Pattani United Liberation Organisation hailed the dead insurgents as heroes and warned 'worse is to come', urging all Muslims in Thailand to exact revenge that would bring 'blood and tears'. The group also warned tourists to stay away from the south. The proprietor of a popular disco on Phuket's notorious nightlife strip Patong Beach said: 'This is a total disaster. We've gone through Sars, 9-11, bird flu, the whole bit, and now this. 'Business hasn't been affected so far, but to be honest, as word gets out, I'm bracing for the worst. I've had nightmares since the Bali bombing of what could happen here, but this really brings it home hard. We'll beef up security, of course, but really, what can you do - except hope and pray.' Phuket and Koh Samui, in particular, are both popular foreign investment areas, and condominiums and high-end homes are popping up like mushrooms. Owners, especially those who have bought as investments, are nervous. A source close to one luxury villa development on Phuket's east coast said: 'These are scary times. You've got developers selling homes worth 15, 20, even 60 million baht (HK$2.9 million, $3.9 million, even $11.7 million). If confidence goes, the whole market could come crashing down in a heap.' Britain, Denmark, New Zealand and Australia all immediately advised citizens not to travel to the five provinces closest to the border, and to be extremely cautious in popular southern tourist spots such as Phuket. Other embassies have issued similar warnings since. An emotional Methee Tanmanatragul, past president of the Thai Hotel Association's southern branch, last week accused the Thai government of mismanaging the crisis, and said no one had properly accounted for the bloodbath, which included the storming of a mosque by troops to end a siege. 'The hotel industry is now struggling to survive because of the failure of the government's crisis management in the south,' he said. 'No one really knows what happened, or why. The politicians say one thing, the military another.' He said his contacts in Phuket had reported that hotels were already beginning to feel the pinch, as foreigners began to cancel bookings en masse. He said Phi Phi island, Samui, Krabi and Phang Nha would soon feel the repercussions, as many travellers used Phuket as a launch-pad to other destinations. 'It's low season now, which we should be thankful for,' he said. 'But the violence and the threats will have a lingering impact. High season begins in October. It's not that far away.' The Nation newspaper quoted the Phuket Arcadia Beach Resort's managing director, Maitri Narukatapiahchi, as saying hoteliers on the island were braced for a sharp drop-off in business. 'We might face 50 to 60 per cent lower occupancy this low season compared to last year, and advance bookings will be slower coming in,' he said. An officer of the Ao Phang Nga National Park said big groups had already cancelled bookings for hotels and resorts in the Surin and Similan island groups, popular upscale dive destinations. Southern police have been ordered to be on alert for suicide bomb attacks, and the Ninth Provincial Police Headquarters, which oversees the deep south, fears Hamas-style missions by explosives-wrapped fanatics targeting busy areas, hotels, or nightclubs. Tensions came to a head 11 days ago after months of sporadic attacks on monks, police and officials by suspected separatists. Thai security forces shot dead 108 suspected Muslim militants, mostly teenagers, for the loss of five police and soldiers, after attacks on army and police posts in southern provinces. Among those dead were 32 men killed at the revered Krue Se mosque in Pattani, which was stormed by police and soldiers despite orders from the top brass in Bangkok to hold off. Islamic studies experts believe Thailand's religious harmony has been irreparably fractured, and that the latest violence is just the beginning of a genuine jihad by fanatical Muslims. Abdulloh Abru, Islamic economics lecturer at the Prince of Songkhla University, told the Bangkok Post he would not rule out the possibility of suicide attacks. And Weera Somkwamkid, head of the Confederation for Democracy, told Agence France-Presse that he expected a religious war to break out. 'I am concerned that from now on we cannot avoid terrorist attacks,' he said. 'It will be suicide bombs or car bombs next.' According to the Islamic Council of Thailand's chairman, Nithi Hasan, a surrender should have been negotiated during the mosque siege rather than allowing troops to violate the sanctity of a holy place. Comments such as that hardly do wonders for the image the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) seeks to promote - of a tolerant, smiling kingdom where all colours and creeds are welcome. Last week Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra visited the south to speak to Muslim community and religious leaders in an effort to quell the flames. But his spokesman, Jakrapob Penkair, was unrepentant about the storming of the mosque. He said the men inside repeatedly refused to come out, fired on troops, killing one soldier, and repeatedly said they were prepared to die.