With controversy over the departure of the three radio talk-show hosts now fading, the issues of June 4 and universal suffrage seemed like a good combination to attract larger-than-expected crowds to recent rallies. However, events proved disappointing to the organisers. June 4 is very special. Most people who join the rallies regard themselves as patriotic, and they only want to push the motherland to work harder for more democracy and less corruption. On the 15th anniversary, naturally a lot of people joined the evening rally, although not as many as the organisers had expected. Most people are quite reluctant to directly confront the central government. In the final analysis, with most of its water and food coming from the mainland, Hong Kong cannot survive without maintaining at least cordial relations with its northern neighbour. So, harbouring an antagonistic attitude towards the central government would amount to collective suicide. This very fundamental analysis explains why, despite all the rhetoric expressed by the pro-democracy camp since Beijing stuck its neck out on Hong Kong affairs, the turnouts at protest marches organised by the democrats have been below expectations. The public simply does not want to openly demonstrate against the central government. In fact, most display a certain degree of political apathy. People do not register to vote, and of those who have actually registered, many have said that they will probably not cast their ballot in the September Legislative Council election. With fewer than expected new voters, coupled with the current political atmosphere, a low turnout in September is looking increasingly likely. Some democrats are planning to switch constituencies to avoid stiff competition in certain areas. They might even lose their grip on the outcome of voting in the new Legco session, which is bad news for them. This also explains why they are trying very hard to make an issue of everything which might work to their advantage. Linking the June 4 anniversary to local politics can be seen as a desperate move, but it has proved futile. And escalating attacks on the central government, albeit through innuendo, can easily backfire. Just imagine Beijing's rage when it learned that it was alleged to have intimidated the talk-show hosts, when clearly that was not the case. Judging by Friday's turnout, it appears likely that perhaps only a small fraction of last year's 500,000 people will turn out for the July 1 rally. The democrats might suddenly find themselves with a serious problem. As populists, their worst nightmare must be to wake up one day and discover that the people have deserted them. Let's face it, if we were to undertake a survey today, democracy would definitely not be top of people's priorities. We have a lot of real and more urgent issues to tackle, like the economy, integration with the Pearl River Delta, unemployment, and law and order. In the past, the democrats lost their popularity because they are, after all, single-issue advocates. They seem to do little except focus on universal suffrage, Tung bashing and pushing for welfare handouts to please their supporters. When they unexpectedly spotted a window of opportunity last July, they tried frantically to cash in on it. In doing so they went too far, to the annoyance of the central government which immediately mounted a counter-offensive. Now that universal suffrage has been ruled out for 2007 and 2008, and has lost its popular appeal, the window is closing rapidly for the democrats. And without any political windfall, they will now have to fight their competitors on a similar footing. Of course, the democrats have their supporters. If the camp puts in some real effort, it can secure 25 seats in the September election. I have no objection to that, as long as I see an honest fight in the coming months. I am sure this is also the wish of Hong Kong voters. Lau Nai-keung is a Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference delegate
