Investors will be swift to cash in gains after Mengniu Dairy's debut last week China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) and Tencent Holdings are expected to push higher as they debut on the Hong Kong main board today, but profit taking may set in earlier than for last week's newcomer given the more jittery sentiment in the past few days, market watchers say. China Mengniu Dairy's share price soared 24.2 per cent on its first day of trading last Thursday but has fallen every day since. The Inner Mongolian-based milk producer was still trading 15.92 per cent above its initial public offering price but the fact that it retreated so quickly would 'probably reduce the momentum' for today's newcomers, said Alex Wong of Rexcapital Asset Management. Investors looking for short-term gains would be keen to take profits early to avoid the possibility of a similar situation for CSCL and Tencent, analysts said. Investors are expected to take more favourably to Tencent, a provider of popular instant messaging service QQ, which saw a strong response to its HK$1.55 billion IPO from both retail and institutional investors. This enabled the firm to price its shares at $3.70 each, or the top end of its indicative range, and should allow for a 10 to 15 per cent gain on the first day, analysts say. 'The larger size and weaker demand will limit the upside for CSCL,' said Marco Mak, head of research with Tai Fook Securities. 'I don't expect too much gains - 5 per cent maybe.' China's No2 shipping firm raised HK$7.68 billion at $3.175 per share, although at least 18 per cent of this was taken up by financial and strategic investors. Excluding these commitments, the institutional tranche, which accounted for 95 per cent of the total offer, was only 2.4 times subscribed, according to sources. By contrast, Tencent's institutional tranche was 30 times covered, while the retail portion saw subscriptions for 159 times the shares on offer. Goldman Sachs was sole bookrunner for the issue. The fact that CSCL priced its shares at the bottom of its range should limit the downside, but at a price to earnings ratio of 6.5 times, the company will still have a higher valuation than some of its competitors, including Hong Kong-listed Orient Overseas International. CSCL, brought to market by joint bookrunners BNP Paribas Peregrine and Morgan Stanley, said yesterday that the net proceeds from its IPO would amount to HK$6.7 billion, or 43 per cent of its initial capital target of US$2 billion. Following the 'use of proceeds' guidelines in its prospectus, it will be left with just under US$75 million of the revenue for 'general working capital'. CSCL intends to spend 2.5 billion yuan of the proceeds to acquire vessels as it moves to double its fleet over the next three years. It estimates its capital expenditure, to purchase, finance or lease vessels and containers this year, will reach 6.76 billion yuan, with expenses of 6.04 billion yuan projected for next year.
