On July 1, last year, half a million people marched in Hong Kong. On Thursday, maybe only 150,000 people will show up. Why has the fervour declined? A year ago, Hong Kong people vented their outrage at the bungling incompetence of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's administration, infuriated with a government behaving as if its only constituency were Hong Kong tycoons. Passing on information it believed (incorrectly) China's leadership wanted to hear, Mr Tung's administration lost the confidence of Hong Kong. By trying to ram through Article 23 legislation, Mr Tung sparked a prairie fire, setting himself against the popular mood. A year later, some things have changed. Article 23 is on the back burner. Mr Tung rarely opens his mouth. Professional administrator Donald Tsang Yam-kuen runs the government. And even Martin Lee Chu-ming has proposed co-operation, not confrontation, to improve dialogue between Hong Kong and Beijing. Hong Kong people are confused. They hear emotional broadsides issued by so-called 'pro-Beijing', 'leftist' hardliners, which are then labelled 'strong-arm tactics' by 'pro-democrats' - who assume the hardliners represent Beijing's view. But that assumption should be questioned. Individuals who are not government officials can only represent themselves. Why should Beijing co-ordinate rhetorical attacks at a sensitive time when it is observing and gathering new perspectives, given the failure of Mr Tung's administration to communicate? Beijing is interested in understanding Hong Kong's mood rather than exacerbating it. Vice-President Zeng Qinghong has set new parameters. 'When talking about expressing aspirations, including those for democracy, I believe there are many different forms of expression. No matter what form the expression takes, I think it should be done for the benefit of 'one country, two systems', as well as Hong Kong's prosperity and stability.' There is just too much old-style tea-leaf-reading going on in Hong Kong about Beijing's intentions. This is not the Cultural Revolution. It is not Deng Xiaoping's era, or even Jiang Zemin's era for that matter. This is a new leadership spearheaded by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Their style is different. Maybe their agenda differs, too. Christine Loh Kung-wai recently said: 'What is the July 1 rally really about? It is about a clash of cultures between Hong Kong and the mainland.' She explained: 'The identity of Hong Kong people ... is continuously being shaped by how the people see themselves... The coming July 1 rally is a part of the making of that identity.' Under British colonialism, Hong Kong people certainly disdained and feared the mainland. Then, before July 1, 1997, Hong Kong's stock market soared, driven by 'red-chip' speculation. Everyone put on Shanghai Tang Chinese clothes to express their new-found identity. True identity is still being shaped. Most Hong Kong people perceive the July 1 rallying date as the anniversary of Hong Kong's 1997 handover. But for people in Beijing, July 1 commemorates the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Last year amid the protest excitement in Hong Kong, Mr Hu was busy commemorating the CCP anniversary by emphasising that the purpose of establishing the CCP had been to 'serve public interest and the people'. As Hong Kong rallies on July 1, it is important to understand what messages are being sent to whom. Pro-democrats cannot understand why Beijing's leaders get upset, while Beijing thinks pro-democrats want to undermine CCP authority. In fact, both are seeking the road towards government reform. It is quite amazing how perceptions can differ within one country with two systems, between two cities a mere three-hour flight apart. Laurence Brahm is a political economist and lawyer based in Beijing
