Amatzia Baram: The number of suicide bombings will increase steadily as militants do their utmost to undermine the new government. Unless this challenge is quickly overcome by the United States and its coalition military allies, the entire process will collapse. With stability, though, the government can work on its other priorities, the foremost being increasing electricity production, creating jobs and providing housing. Because of sabotage, the amount of electricity being generated is a third of what the Americans had promised. This will be solved through buying generators for neighbourhoods of about 100 families and putting them in charge of management and providing security. With jobs, the model is US President Franklin Roosevelt's 'New Deal' of the 1930s, through which millions of positions were created. There is no shortage of money or work to be done. Baghdad is a prime example - because of the collapsed infrastructure, the city looks like a giant rubbish dump with piles of refuse and leaking sewage mains. Another source of employment will be the construction of the one million new homes that are needed. People with jobs will be able to pay for them with 20-year loans. There are so many other things, but the basic point is that the system has to be jump-started. Former president Saddam Hussein is being held at a special prison in Iraq by the CIA and will be handed over to the interim government in a few weeks. Technical arrangements for his trial are being worked on at the moment. Philip Mitchell: There is no change likely for many months with how security is provided to the Iraqi people. The 145,000-strong coalition military forces will continue to take the bulk of that responsibility because trained Iraqi security forces are still not on the ground in sufficient numbers. The Iraqis are also poorly equipped. That is the primary reason the coalition will have to stay for several years to come - one British politician went so far as to say at the weekend that they could be there for a decade. There is little degree of responsible training taking place. Even with conscription, no matter where it takes place, at least a year is needed to turn out trained and well-equipped soldiers. The Iraqi security forces being trained by coalition forces are getting no more than a month to six weeks. Internal security is being handled by the Civil Defence Corps, which the new government will soon rename as the National Guard. A total of 36,000 of its 37,500 troops are on duty. More telling is the police force - of the 87,000 recruited, 57,000 are untrained. The army is 9,800 strong and only 7,000 are on duty, while the rest are in training.There is a long way to go. The training presently under way is being rushed and it not adequate to deal with the existing threats. Mustafa Alani: There will not be a major shift in the situation with the handover of sovereignty. Essentially, it is a case of the same faces, the same manner, the same policies. The interim government mostly comprises people who were members of its predecessor, the United States-appointed Iraqi Governing Council. The Americans have promised not to interfere, but the new leaders will still be listening closely to them out of economic necessity. While the money from oil revenues remains insufficient to help with rebuilding work, the US will remain essential as it has committed billions of dollars. Security is the number one priority for the government, and so far that has been mostly provided by the Americans. Increasing deterioration in security means the US will be happy to transfer decision-making in that area to the government. But the new leadership will have obligations to the Americans because of the economic factors. The interim government has three months to succeed. Iraqis are not going to let it survive if it cannot bring about stability in that time. That does not look like happening and it seems likely that the political process will collapse. There is no alternative available - if this government fails, the timetable for political change will collapse. There can be no elections without security.
