A surprise decision to hand control of Iraq over to its new government two days ahead of schedule may have averted an attack on the ceremony, but it does nothing to reduce the enormity of challenges ahead.
The primary concern is security. Without it, there is no way basic services can be re-established. And without these, rebuilding institutions and a healthy economy also remain impossible. Insurgents have vowed to bring down even the Iraqis now in charge of the country, while some 170,000 foreign troops under American command are an obvious target for animosity. Factional militias have by no means been completely disarmed, meaning that tribal differences existing just beneath the surface still pose a threat to stability.
Nato's commitment to help Iraq train its own security forces should help, but civic peace will take much more than that. It will take a substantial change in the character of the military presence in the country and eventually a leading military and policing role for Iraqis. In the medium term, it will take troop commitments from a broad spectrum of Muslim and non-Muslim countries, sent under the United Nations flag - as well as the gradual withdrawal of the American troops, who now make up the bulk of occupying soldiers.
Once there is progress on security, the goal of holding polls by January might seem less optimistic. The latest UN resolution on Iraq calls for the election of an assembly that would nominate a government and write a permanent constitution. More elections would be held by the end of 2005.
The widespread scepticism about keeping to this schedule reflects how far we are away from the vision of Iraq as a shining beacon of democracy and stability in the Middle East that US President George W. Bush offered after the government of Saddam Hussein was toppled last spring. It is a goal still worth pursuing, although without any illusions about the potential pitfalls. Reasons for optimism include Iraq's educated middle class, substantial oil wealth and popular yearning for normalcy.
The US-led invasion may have lacked international legitimacy, but the present instability in Iraq poses a threat for us all. Having toppled Hussein and brought promises of a better future, the world cannot now abandon the country to the possibility of civil war or worse.