Sunday's upper house election in Japan was a major setback to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), headed by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Of the 121 seats, it won just 49, two short of its modest pre-election target. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won 50 seats, an increase of 12 from the previous 38. For now, the LDP will retain control of the upper house with its coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, but Mr Koizumi's position has clearly been weakened.
Three years ago, Mr Koizumi rode to power with his charismatic personal style and high popularity, vowing to undertake major reforms. Perhaps his indelible mark on Japanese politics is in the foreign policy arena, where he has engineered a major departure from post-war practices. And it is here that the broader implications must be recognised, not only for Japan's future direction, but also for the region's peace and stability.
Four areas are worthy of note. One is the gradual erosion of the peace constitution, especially the article that renounces the use of force. The Koizumi administration has pushed through various bills in the Diet that allow Japan to despatch self-defence forces overseas to participate in multinational operations even if they are not sponsored by the United Nations, and even resort to pre-emptive action if threats call for defensive responses.
Second, Mr Koizumi has led Japan into a closer relationship with the United States, and demonstrated strong support for US policies, sometimes against major opposition at home and in the international community. The deployment of 550 self-defence force personnel to Iraq is a case in point. This is a very unpopular policy, and the DPJ made much of it during the election campaign.
Third, the past few years have witnessed a buildup of Japan's military capabilities. Since the North Korean missile test in August 1998, and the recent nuclear crisis, Tokyo has committed to major investments in missile defences, reconnaissance satellites and naval vessels. And finally, Mr Koizumi has personalised diplomacy and sometimes takes on a 'presidential' air in major foreign policy decisions. His two summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and his decision to despatch self-defence forces to Iraq without consulting parliament or even his own party, project an image of a resolute leader.
Mr Koizumi's foreign policy has important implications for East Asia's evolving security outlook. In particular, it will affect Sino-Japanese relations in significant ways. Indeed, almost six decades after the end of the second world war, Asia's two great powers remain estranged. Tokyo's reluctance to come forward with a full apology over Japan's war atrocities, and Mr Koizumi's four visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, continue to alienate China.
