A 'win-win' deal can be a losing proposition - especially over lunch
The 'win-win situation' is one of the most abused cliches in business. Lai See, moreover, is of the opinion that business is like chess - the only possible outcomes are win, lose or draw.
So it is something of a relief to find that at least one analyst is willing to counter the conventional wisdom concerning PCCW's possible tie-up with China Netcom. Most commentators are generally positive about the deal's prospects, even when divided over its likely structure (possibilities range from a small cross-border joint venture to Netcom taking over PCCW's Hong Kong operations).
Lai See is among the sceptics who think a joint venture more likely than a full-fledged takeover. The latter could provide PCCW chairman Richard Li Tzar-kai with an exit route from the company.
While raising her rating for PCCW last week, ABN Amro analyst Helen Zhu nevertheless disputed the market's perceptions that there won't be any losers.
Ms Zhu wrote: 'The bottom line: PCCW shareholders only win if Netcom loses. PCCW shareholders will get a good deal only if Netcom is willing to overpay. As we believe the risks involved with overpaying outweigh the potential benefits for Netcom, we are sceptical that a deal would be a windfall for PCCW.'