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Positive side to return of inflation

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After five years and eight months, it is finally official: inflation is back. In the end, the much-anticipated moment was something of an anticlimax. But the importance of this economic landmark should not be overlooked.

The slight rise in Hong Kong prices reflected by the composite consumer price index yesterday - 0.9 per cent to be exact - ends the longest continuous period of deflation experienced anywhere since the second world war.

Over the past 68 months we have come to see deflation as an enemy, a symbol of our city's economic woes. The decline in prices was both a product of, and a contributor to, the downturn - and the pain that went with it. So the news that it has, at least temporarily, been vanquished is welcome. It is another visible sign of the economic recovery.

The upward movement, however, comes as no surprise to Hong Kong's savvy shoppers. The reality is that prices have been rising for months, probably since last summer. It has just taken the CPI, which compares the figures for each month to that of a year ago, that long to catch up. As a result, the return of inflation has been widely predicted - hence, the sense of anticlimax.

The CPI does not tell the whole story. It is calculated for a basket of commonly used goods and services, including private-sector rent. But for all its shortcomings, this is the headline figure. It is the official indicator of whether we have deflation or inflation.

As a result, this is the one most likely to have a bearing on consumer confidence. It is ironic, however, that after so much agonising over the damage done by deflation, there are some who are already suggesting we should be wary of its departure. After all, inflation can be a risky business, as the mainland well knows, for it is battling to cool down overheating in many sectors. And do we really want to pay more for our goods?

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