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Nick Pulford

The full-scale start of the European qualifying campaign for the 2006 World Cup brings the usual problem for soccer punters - how to unearth some value from a collection of games featuring mismatches, little-known teams and virtually no solid form lines.

Tonight's main event is England's opening game away to Austria - one of three live matches, along with Latvia v Portugal and France v Israel.

England have a first-rate record of six wins and a draw [in Turkey] in seven qualifying away games under Sven Goran Eriksson, while Austria's last two qualifying campaigns [for Euro 2004 and the 2002 World Cup] have not yielded a single home point against the big teams in their group - Turkey, Holland and the Czech Republic.

England should score the straight win and the handicap offers no better value, given that a single-goal victory is the probable outcome.

The Fifa rankings are a good starting point for punters trying to assess the other games.

The latest set is bang up to date, having been issued only on Thursday, and shows 17 European teams in the world's top 30.

France still lead the way in Europe, despite their disappointing Euro 2004 campaign, followed by Spain and the Czech Republic. European champions Greece have been the big movers on the table over recent months and are now ranked 14th in the world and 10th in Europe.

There have been many arguments over the merits of these rankings, but there is no doubt that punters should take them into account when placing bets.

For instance, over the last four qualifying tournaments staged in Europe [two for the European Championships and two for the World Cup], teams ranked in the world's top 30 have come out on top in more than 70 per cent of matches against teams from outside the top 30.

That's probably no surprise, given the poor quality of many of the smaller European teams, but it does provide a statistical background to the odds on offer this weekend.

Odds under 1.40 are poor value and punters should concentrate on top-ranked home sides who are available at slightly better odds. Home teams generally dominate at this level, which suggests Russia, Denmark, Italy and Croatia, along with odds-on Turkey, are the best bets on the handicap HAD (Home-Away-Draw).

Punters might do well to wait for the midweek round of internationals, however, as they are much more competitive. Four feature clashes between teams in Fifa's top 30 - Sweden v Croatia, Holland v Czech Republic, Poland v England and Greece v Turkey - and these are the matches to concentrate on. History shows that these matches often end in draws and are low-scoring.

Holland v Czech Republic is the classiest midweek fixture and renews a rivalry from Euro 2004 - when the Czechs bounced back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 - and the qualifying for that tournament.

It is worth noting that three of the last four meetings between the sides in Holland have ended all-square and none has featured more than two goals.

Exactly the same statistics apply to Poland v England. Poland should not be underestimated as the Fifa rankings show them to be the second-best European side not to reach Euro 2004 [the best being Ireland] and they have beaten Italy and Greece in home friendlies in the past 12 months. The betting advice in midweek is to split stakes between the draw [which should be priced around 3.2] and low goals (around 1.7) in the big four.

THOUSAND-DOLLAR WAGER

Each week our expert tipster Nick Pulford suggests his pick of the fixtures to offer the best return-to-risk ratio for a $1,000 bet.

This week: $100 draw Sweden v Croatia, Holland v Czech Republic, Poland v England and Greece v Turkey.

$150 low goals Sweden v Croatia, Holland v Czech Republic, Poland v England and Greece v Turkey.



Midweek World Cup qualifying matches offer punters best bet