Polls have suggested that former leader of the Democratic Party Martin Lee Chu-ming, who is second on the party's list in the Hong Kong Island constituency headed by Yeung Sum, may fail to keep his seat in Sunday's Legislative Council election. The party is hoping that a high turnout of pro-democracy voters will help him get re-elected.
The biggest worry for the party's strategists is that if the turnout is unsatisfactory or unevenly distributed, either Mr Lee will lose or he will win at the expense of another incumbent legislator, Cyd Ho Sau-lan, who is ranked second on the list headed by another member of the pro-democratic camp, Audrey Eu Yuet-mee.
As six lists are vying for six seats in the constituency, under the proportional representation system both Dr Yeung and Ms Eu seem assured of a seat because polls show that their lists will each get at least one-sixth of the votes. But Mr Lee and Ms Ho may not get elected if the remaining number of votes for their lists - after deducting the ones that secure the victories of Dr Yeung and Ms Eu - are not the largest among the six contesting lists.
In fact, the signs are that the 'remainder vote' for a third list could be big enough to lead to the defeat of either Mr Lee or Ms Ho. That would be a blow to the pan-democratic camp's strategy of winning four seats in this constituency. The democrats are calling on each of their supporters to bring another voter to the polling station, with one voting for Dr Yeung and Mr Lee, and the other for Ms Eu and Ms Ho, to ensure that all four get elected. But polls seem to show that people may not vote according to the plan.
In the New Territories East constituency, the so-called 'diamond list' of seven candidates from the pan-democratic camp is also in a state of crisis. Their fear is that the fourth member on the list, incumbent legislator Wong Sing-chi, may fail to get elected after agreeing to let novice politician Ronny Tong Ka-wah rank third. Mr Tong, a former Bar Association chairman, shot to fame after playing a vocal role in opposing the national security bill last year.
While supporters of the Democratic Party or the pan-democratic camp may blame the proportional representation system for forcing them to rank the candidates, it is fair to say that under any system political parties have to make difficult choices about which members should stand in which constituencies. Whatever the system, there will be winners and losers.
