Let's stop arguing and take care of our planet

The global weather forecast in recent years has been unpredictable and bleak. Asia suffered its worst floods in decades this summer. Last year, Europe endured a heatwave in which more than 20,000 people died. Now, super-hurricane Ivan is sweeping menacingly towards Cuba and the US, leaving a trail of death and destruction in its wake. With winds of up to 250km/h, the hurricane devastated Grenada and hit Jamaica. More than 50 lives have been lost. It is moving towards the Gulf coast of North America - and Florida is bracing for a third hurricane in a month.

Unfortunately, the forecast is for even worse over the next six months. The US government is warning that a new El Nino effect - the easterly flow of warm water across the Pacific - is on its way. This usually means more floods and droughts.

The cause of these extreme weather conditions is, not surprisingly, a matter of much debate and concern. Global warming has become the prime suspect - but the jury is still out. This week, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and opposition leader Michael Howard are both expected to declare war on climate change. They will reportedly call for international action to tackle global warming and to develop clean, renewable sources of energy. These are worthy aims. More should be done worldwide to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming. But whether this will also bring us better weather remains in doubt.

The world is getting warmer. The average global temperature has risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. And the mercury is forecast to rise by as much as 5.8 Celsius in some parts of the world over the next century.

This has led to growing concerns about melting ice caps, rising sea levels and even more extreme weather - floods, droughts and storms. There have been some alarming predictions. One scientific study by the German government last year warned that large areas of cities including New York, Shanghai and London could disappear under the sea.

Yet the link between global warming and extreme weather conditions remains a matter of dispute. One school of thought is that we are merely seeing cyclical changes in weather conditions which take place over long periods of time. The lack of comparable data going far enough back in history makes it more difficult for a conclusion to be reached.