All the ballyhoo and propagandising didn't mean much to the electorate Could the goodies that the central government has given to Hong Kong over the past year have cancelled out the surging tide of support for the pro-democracy camp stirred up by opposition to the national security bill last year? Or were citizens largely unmoved by the public displays of emotions, whether over the historic march of 500,000 people on July 1 last year or the display of patriotism after China sent its first astronaut to space and the Chinese squad's spectacular achievement at the Athens Olympics? If votes cast in the district polls could be taken as indicators of where people's hearts lie, then little has changed over the past four years. Despite a significant rise in the turnout, from 43.5 per cent in 2000 to 55.63 per cent this year, the relative share of the popular vote going to the pro-democracy and pro-government camps has remained largely unchanged. In 2000, about 61 per cent of valid votes went to candidates fielded by the Democratic Party, The Frontier, the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), the Confederation of Trade Unions and non-affiliated democrats. This year the votes collected by candidates from the Democratic Party, The Frontier, the Article 45 Concern Group, the ADPL and non-affiliated democrats constituted about 62 per cent of the total. For the pro-government camp, candidates from the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, the Federation of Trade Unions, the Liberal Party and the Hong Kong Progressive Alliance collected about 37 per cent of the votes this year, compared with about 32 per cent in 2000. The pro-democracy camp must be disappointed it got only 19 seats. In Hong Kong Island, the Democratic Party's efforts to flush out its supporters have secured the re-election of former party chief Martin Lee Chu-ming. But his victory inadvertently led to the defeat of Cyd Ho Sau-lan, who was second on the list headed by Audrey Eu Yuet-mee and who lost by a narrow margin to the second candidate on the DAB list, Choy So-yuk. Perhaps the most significant development in the pro-democracy camp is the relative decline of the Democratic Party's leading role. None of the candidates ranked second or third on the party's various lists in different constituencies were returned. While the party has blamed its failures on a series of scandals that surfaced during the campaign, the signs are the party's traditional supporters have been drawn to the star candidates affiliated to the Article 45 Concern Group and independents like broadcaster Albert Cheng King-hon and 'Long Hair' Leung Kwok-hung. In the pro-government camp, a similar development appears to be under way to weaken the DAB. Although newcomers Cheung Hok-ming, who ranked second on the list headed by Tam Yiu-chung in New Territories West, and Li Kwok-ying, who ranked second in the list headed by Lau Kong-wah in New Territories East, have won, the party must be quietly concerned that the Liberal Party and non-affiliated pro-Beijing candidates are threatening its support base. The balance of power between the pro-democracy camp (18 seats) and the pro-government camp (12 seats) in the geographical constituencies is similar to that in the last Legco. This must not be to the central government's liking, as it again confirms that should the chief executive be returned by direct election, it is highly likely that a candidate from the pro-democracy camp would win. But the Tung administration can still basically expect smooth sailing over the next three years. C. K. Lau is the Post's executive editor, policy
