Can Anwar become prime minister yet?
The decision yesterday by Malaysia's highest court to refuse to reconsider a failed appeal to overturn a corruption conviction against former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim will disappoint his many supporters, as he will be unable to enter formal politics immediately.
Malaysian law bars convicted felons from holding party posts or contesting elections for five years after their release. However, the decision will not prevent the charismatic Mr Anwar from taking a leadership role for the country's opposition, and beyond. Given the terrorist atrocity in Beslan, Russia, and the ongoing quagmire in Iraq, Mr Anwar will inevitably assume an important international role as a moderate Muslim leader.
Since his release on September 2 after a sodomy conviction was overturned, his media-friendly manner and persuasive personality have drawn worldwide attention and praise. However, given Malaysia's voluble nationalism, an abundance of foreign praise could well undermine his domestic credibility. Still, Mr Anwar also remains a popular and sympathetic figure in his homeland - especially among the younger generation.
However, his real challenge will be in attempting to negotiate Malaysia's heterogeneous mix of people and domestic political realities. Although Mr Anwar has broad national appeal and popular sympathy, his political party network is limited. The demands of constituency politics and the need for a nationwide network of activists will make his re-entry into public life far from easy.
What is more, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has ruled out the possibility of Mr Anwar rejoining Umno, (the United Malays National Organisation), the dominant party in the ruling coalition. His exclusion will certainly strengthen his moral authority and provide him with the platform to pressure Mr Abdullah's government on issues of civil liberties, corporate transparency and accountability.
However, it is unlikely that Mr Anwar will be content with such a role, and will seek to assume office again. This will force him to join, or at least work with, the opposition, itself severely weakened by Mr Abdullah's thumping victory in the national polls in March.
Unfortunately for Mr Anwar, the two leading opposition parties represent conflicting forces within Malaysian public life. First, there is the Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), a fundamentalist Muslim movement led by religious clerics. It is firmly committed to the implementation of the sharia law. For many members, Mr Anwar remains overly westernised and - given the allegations against him - morally compromised.
Then, there is the Democratic Action Party, a predominantly Chinese grouping that champions a secular vision for the multiracial nation, as well as Mandarin language and education issues. It will be respectful but wary. At the same time, Keadilan, headed by Mr Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah Ismail, has failed to unite the opposition into an effective coalition. It was reduced to one seat - Dr Azizah's own - in the election.
This situation is exacerbated by Mr Anwar's past as a Muslim activist and the fact that the main body of his support comes from the more orthodox and conservative of the majority Malays and PAS ulema (religious scholars). These factors have dented his popularity among Malaysia's religiously and racially diverse population.
Meanwhile, Mr Abdullah, an Islamic scholar, has spent the past year building up community goodwill. Recently, he went as far as to address the Council of Churches, an international Protestant grouping, at its annual gathering in Kuala Lumpur.
Mr Anwar's release has altered Malaysia's politics irrevocably, injecting a degree of unpredictability and shaking up the country's placid and uneventful political landscape. His mere presence will act as a constant brake on the ruling party's excesses - but it is by no means certain that he will occupy the job of prime minister, which he so dearly yearns for.
Karim Raslan is a lawyer and writer based in Kuala Lumpur
