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Peter Kammerer

Academic warns  of huge crisis if changes are stalled

Rising prosperity and education levels would push China to democracy within decades, a leading proponent of the political system predicted yesterday.

American expert on democracy in Asia, Larry Diamond, said the mainland's leaders had to accept the inevitability 'or there's going to be one massive, debilitating crisis in China'.

Dr Diamond was speaking a day after President Hu Jintao  told a rally in Beijing marking the 50th anniversary of the National People's Congress that western-style democracy was a 'blind alley' for China.

Despite this, the senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy and author/editor of more than 20 books was willing to take a gamble with members of the Asia Society in Hong Kong.

'I'm 53 years old and I will make you a bet that before I die, China will be a democracy,' he said.

Dr Diamond explained that the pluralism and social problems emerging as a result of economic development combined with corruption made the mainland's system of autocratic governance unsustainable.

Any thoughts by the leadership that they could make a 'soft landing' from a one-party system by adopting one similar to Singapore's were misguided, he said.

'Increasingly, as China becomes better educated and more prosperous with more sources of diversity and independent organisations ... the Communist Party will find itself under mounting pressure for democratic change,' Dr Diamond said.

'Either this is going to happen in stages with competitive elections at the village level moving up to the township, country, provincial and ultimately the national levels - with much more scope for an independent judiciary and civil society, or there's going to be one, massive debilitating crisis in China.'

The researcher also expressed concern about the state of democracy in Taiwan. Before March's  presidential election, he believed Taiwan to be among east Asia's most promising democracies, but he now had reservations.

The assassination attempt on  President Chen Shui-bian - whether genuine or staged for political gain as suggested by the opposition - had clearly swung the result of the poll. This had put the legitimacy of the government in doubt.

'Taiwan was doing fairly well, but I'm now very worried about the degree of political polarisation there,' he said.



Rise in wealth will force democracy on China 'in decades'