The politics of livelihood
The campaign to halt the next phase of cuts to social security payments is only the tip of the iceberg. Spearheaded by newly elected legislators Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung and 'Long Hair' Leung Kwok-hung, the opposition to the Comprehensive Social Security Allowance cuts signals the revival of livelihood politics in the new Legislative Council.
It was not purely coincidental that social service agencies and non-governmental organisations staged a poverty summit last week. It came just as the government kicked off public consultations on a new welfare framework. Renewed debates are now expected to focus on issues of health-care financing and the proposed goods and services tax.
This seems strange, as economic and social policy issues failed to generate much debate during the Legco election campaign. Despite little evidence that the public was galvanised by electioneering into supporting any major policy preferences, legislators-elect are now bringing some of these issues back on the agenda.
The Legco campaign failed to focus on concrete policy issues mainly because the biggest issue of all - universal suffrage for electing the chief executive and all of Legco - was vetoed by the central government in April. The pro-democracy camp was not able to push for a political showdown on that issue, as it had sought to do.
Once the election was over, even the pro-democrats realised they could no longer expect much of a breakthrough on the constitutional reform front. Some limited changes will be introduced by the government for 2007 and 2008, within the parameters set by Beijing, but these will not excite the community.
Although a wide consensus now seems to have emerged for universal suffrage in 2012, it is unrealistic to expect the constitutional reform debate to gain much momentum - at least, during the next two to three years. Meanwhile, Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, no doubt with Beijing's understanding if not prodding, has denied any intention to reintroduce the divisive Article 23 legislation in the future.
If such highly political issues are removed from the agenda, they will not return while Mr Tung is still in the post.
By 2006, the attention of the public and Beijing leaders will turn to the choice of Mr Tung's successor and how the third Hong Kong government will be formed. The energy of major political forces will be absorbed by the election for the chief executive.
Once that process is under way, the political and policy agenda will likely be dominated by candidates vying for the top post, and thereafter by the new leader.
So parties and legislators actually have only the next two years in which to score political points and gain concessions from the government, before they have to face the electorate again in 2008. Sensing there is no way to bring constitutional issues forward - and that doing so would only cause more confrontation with Beijing - many may strategically shift to more rewarding fronts: namely, bread-and-butter economic and social issues.
The pro-democracy camp will likely make a left turn, towards welfare improvements and grass-roots needs.
The conventional democratic parties will try to regain the popularity they lost to the new moderates, giving impetus to the politics of livelihood. As for the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, the Federation of Trade Unions and even the Liberal Party, they may keep a distance from the Tung administration to avoid being tainted with a pro-government label.
Unable to play the political reform card available to the democrats, they will naturally seek to perform on livelihood issues.
In this they can exploit the leverage created by their government-friendly stance.
Business and professional functional constituencies will similarly seek tax relief, support for enterprises and assistance for the professions. The former Breakfast Group of non-affiliated legislators has just declared itself a 'critical minority', out to trade its legislative votes for government policy concessions.
The overall scene may thus encourage an offensive against the government for various benefits from different interests.
Mr Tung's remark that he felt 'comfortable' with the election results may well prove to have been over-optimistic.
Anthony Cheung Bing-leung is a professor of public administration at City University of Hong Kong and chairman of SynergyNet, a policy think-tank
