Australians will vote tomorrow in the tightest national election in living memory. Most opinion polls have the major political parties - the conservative Liberal-National Party Coalition of Prime Minister John Howard, and the centrist Australian Labor Party, led by Mark Latham - split evenly. For the Asian region, and China in particular, the result is of greater consequence than usual, given Australia's high-profile role as a leading US ally in the war on terror and in the Iraq conflict, as well as the rapidly growing economic and strategic importance of China to Australia. Mr Howard, who is 65, is seeking a fourth term in office, having first been elected in 1996. (Australian elections are held every 2-3 years). Mr Latham, at 43, has only been leader of the Labor Party for 10 months, and in contrast to Mr Howard's emphasis on Australia's booming economy, and his experience, he has been talking about increasing funding for the health and education systems. But it is on the foreign and defence policy front that the two leaders and their parties are most at odds. Mr Latham says that Australia's commitment to Iraq has made it a more likely terrorist target and diverted attention from the need to increase security closer to home. Two neighbours, Indonesia - the world's largest Muslim nation - and the Philippines are battling to control terrorist cells within their countries. Mr Howard's foreign policy in recent years has favoured relatively uncritical support for the US, and Mr Latham wants to focus more heavily on Australia's ties in Asia, while maintaining a friendly but more independent relationship with Washington. On June 19, Mr Howard made a number of Asian leaders nervous by committing Australia to participating in the Bush administration's 'son of star wars' missile defence programme. The Labor Party, aware of those misgivings, has indicated it opposes Australia's involvement. The party condemned Foreign Minister Alexander Downer's comments in Beijing last month that Australia would not necessarily come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a military conflict with Beijing. Its Foreign Affairs spokesman, Kevin Rudd, also said that the party would make it 'plain to the Taiwanese authorities that the interests of regional stability would not be served by any formal move towards independence'. Mr Rudd wants to see Australia engaging in 'an activist diplomacy on the China-Taiwan question in partnership with the US and other regional states'. Whichever side wins could also determine the future of the proposed free-trade agreement with China. The Howard government has already announced that a 'fast-track' feasibility study into an agreement will be completed by April. It remains enthusiastic about securing a deal with China, after successfully negotiating a free-trade agreement with the US this year. But Labor is more cautious. It is listening to Australian business groups, particularly those representing the manufacturing sector. They are concerned about losing the right to take action against China for dumping products on to the Australian market, as well as whether Beijing can be convinced to reduce non-tariff barriers, such as industry subsidies. If Labor wins, it is likely to slow the free-trade agreement process, and might abandon it altogether. When the party was last in office, its leader, Paul Keating, established a national Asian languages and studies programme to create future generations of Australians who could speak Chinese and better understand the culture. In keeping with his downgrading of the cultural importance of Asia to Australia, this programme was abandoned by Mr Howard two years ago. Labor is promising to restore it if it wins. For China, and the Asian region generally, the election is of more than passing consequence. Greg Barns, a senior political adviser to the Australian government from 1996-99, is now a political commentator based in Australia
