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IF YOU HAVE not found that dream job yet, it is time to hit the streets.  A survey compiled

by Nielson Media Research on behalf of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) revealed job vacancies were on the rise from July to September.

But the news is not all good, as economic experts predict a slight recruitment slump for the fourth quarter.

The quarterly SCMP recruitment report indicated the net amount of jobs jumped 5.6 per cent from the second to the third quarter, an increase from 57,352 jobs between April and June to 60,592 between July and September.

While this is encouraging,  the momentum is not expected to continue into the fourth quarter.  And although the unemployment rate continues to drop, the pace has slowed down considerably.

'It is still going down, but very slowly,' said Francis Lui, professor of economics and director for the centre of economic development at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

'Economists thought it would go down to about 6.4 per cent by December, but we since announced at a recent press conference on the economic forecast that it would go down to about 6.7 per cent only. It is currently at 6.8 per cent.'

Mr Lui attributed the slowdown in part to the uncertainties arising from the high price of oil, which is having an impact on markets in the United States, Europe and Japan. 'The high price of oil will not have a direct effect on the Hong Kong economy, but it will affect exports from Hong Kong to the US and European markets,' he said.

'Exports will not do as  well as we expected, and so the economic growth will not be as high, and that will definitely have an effect on hiring. I think exports will continue to grow, but at a rate less than before, especially in 2005.'

Exports have risen 17 per cent so far this year, but next year they  are forecast to rise by only 11 per cent.

Mr Lui warned that some companies may anticipate this fact and recruit fewer staff as a result.

George Leung, HSBC chief economist for Greater China, also expressed concern about the trading industry in the fourth quarter. He agreed that world markets could bring the current pace to a halt.

'In the third quarter we experienced good growth in the export sector, particularly related to China and US trade. Overall this year, Hong Kong export has risen substantially by about 15 to 20 per cent in the last quarter.

'But I'm a bit worried about the fourth quarter because right now we are seeing that the US market is about to slow down. And in China trade may also slow down, [particularly in the fourth quarter] and early next year. I'm not sure if job creation in the trade sector will be sustained or not,' he said.

Apart from trade-related companies, other sectors that enjoyed a growth spurt in the third quarter were manufacturing, industrial/engineering, education and training and retail/wholesale. But trade-related companies have consistently led the way in recruitment since January, with 22,833 job postings, compared with 18,567 in the manufacturing industry and 17,917 in industrial/engineering.

Mr Lui forecast  that finance, information technology and legal companies would remain steady in the fourth quarter.

Because China lacked accountants, Hong Kong would have to continue  supplying qualified professionals in this field. As China engaged in more 'business with the outside world, standardised accounting practices will be very important', Mr Lui said.

The legal sector is also somewhat driven by business in China.

'When different contracts are to be signed, companies prefer to sign them in Hong Kong instead of China because if there is a dispute, it will be dealt with in a Hong Kong court. I predict, for this reason, Hong Kong will continue to enjoy an advantage in this area,' he said.

The IT industry will continue to grow as more money enters Hong Kong and companies look for more efficient ways of doing business.

Tourism is another industry that seems to be heating up as more people visit Hong Kong and the country recovers from  Sars setback. But  some experts doubt the significance of this growing industry on the  economy as a whole.

'People are talking about tourism and the recovery from Sars, but given the number of jobs created in that sector, it is not really that large in terms of the bigger  picture.

'Trade is still the major sector. Even a moderate slowdown in that area will have a substantial impact on the job market, so it may not be possible for tourism to offset the decline in the trade sector,' Mr  Lui said.

But tourism is having a positive impact on the manufacturing industry.

'Given the number of tourists coming to Hong Kong, and I think it will increase, there is a need to expand business in this area,' he said.

While we may see the demand for labour reduced, slowing the growth rate in the coming six months, the number of jobs may still rise, he said.



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