No one seen as capable of casting PLO leader's political shadow
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's illness has prompted a false political calm among his potential successors that will erupt into a possibly violent power struggle when he dies, analysts agreed yesterday.
The factional unrest would not result in a civil war, though, the experts said. Their reasoning was that Israel had too many settlers in the occupied Palestinian territories to allow such an eventuality.
While Mr Arafat remains in a Paris military hospital in a coma, the reins of power are being held by his deputy in the Palestine Liberation Organisation, Mahmoud Abbas, and Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei.
But Middle East expert Tamara Wittes believes their leader's death will spark infighting among groups headed by men with the backing of sections of the security forces.
'There are a number of factions that have real grass-roots constituencies,' said Dr Wittes, a research fellow with the Brooking Institution think-tank's Saban Centre for Middle East Policy. 'The younger generation leaders who have controlled the security services have armed men loyal to them. Those and the militant opposition movements, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have the greatest potential for violence.'
Unrest from the latter groups had been evident for the past few months against Israeli forces, she said. But as Israel had shown, it was not tolerating the attacks because it had too many civilians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
