It is easy to assume that Beijing and Taipei have a clear picture of what the other is thinking, given 50 years of cross-strait mutual distrust, tension and close observation. But assuming too much is dangerous. Official communications, highly restricted by both sides, pre-empt the kind of open dialogue that is now badly needed. Sadly, unofficial contacts are limited to academics who lack sufficient channels to pass on the messages.
This leaves both sides relying on official statements to assess what the other is thinking. So, when rhetoric turns up on one side, the other follows suit, limiting, rather than opening, dialogue possibilities.
The State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office frequently reacts to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's statements, which often appear inconsistent, stoking Beijing's distrust. But the mainland government has difficulty understanding Taiwan's local politics, where Mr Chen has a thin majority, and control involves brokering the divergent, polemic interests. Frequently changing his stance on issues has proved to be Mr Chen's formula for maintaining power.
He seems to be doing a U-turn again, but this time, it may be in Beijing's interests. If it can grasp the window of opportunity, history could be changed. Is the Taiwan Affairs Office fully aware of this? From a press conference held by its spokesman, Li Weiyi , on November 17, it appears not.
When asked about Taiwan's 'positive attitude' concerning direct cross-strait flights during the Lunar New Year, Mr Li dismissed this, saying that Taiwan's position of 'one nation on each side' created an impasse. Beijing insists on using the term 'domestic', not 'international', in designating flight status.
But Taipei's position could be more flexible than the Taiwan office realises. Perhaps the commercial carriers should be allowed to talk; they may come up with a pragmatic solution.