Saturday's legislative election in Taiwan could have a significant bearing on cross-strait relations. Of paramount concern to both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition Kuomintang alike is the possibility of Lee Teng-hui's anti-Beijing Taiwan Solidarity Union winning a substantial minority. This could hype public sentiment, countering attempts by President Chen Shui-bian, or even the opposition, to push to reactivate cross-strait dialogue.
Taiwanese politics is complicated by extremes which pull in opposing directions. Mr Lee has promoted his qu hua, or 'eliminate the Chinese', agenda by parading in a Japanese samurai costume during election campaigning. This has stirred up feelings among radical elements in the south of the island, who associate themselves with the Japanese (Japan colonised Taiwan from 1894-1945). Mr Lee's movement is dangerous. Countering it should be of paramount concern to Beijing.
It is being opposed through a pro-Chinese revivalism movement, led by Hsu Hsin-liang, a political legend in Taiwan. Mr Hsu was once the radical leader of the DPP during the party's early years when it challenged the KMT's authority. Mr Hsu was later marginalised and then ousted by Mr Chen, who fuelled his own rise by advocating a more radical independence agenda.
During protests over Mr Chen's controversial re-election this year, Mr Hsu re-emerged from the political wilderness to lead a massive hunger strike outside the presidential palace. Now, he is running for a seat in the legislature. Can he make a political comeback? And if he succeeds, what would be the consequences?
If a picture is worth 1,000 words, Mr Hsu's campaign poster speaks 10,000. It depicts Mr Hsu, wearing a traditional jacket made famous by Sun Yat-sen , facing Deng Xiaoping . Does this mean that he is pro-unification? Certainly, he is for dialogue. 'The situation is out of control and at any time could become volatile,' Mr Hsu said recently on the subject of cross-strait relations. 'My reason to seek re-entry into the Legislative Yuan is to put forward a solution. It is time to negotiate. Economic dependency on China is so great. How can you argue with this?'
Could a single opposition seat greatly affect Taiwan's legislature, given the existing political clout of the established parties and forces? Mr Hsu's charisma is a factor. So is his network, which extends both within the DPP and the KMT. They 'could be my potential supporters', he believes. 'They agree with my position but have no clear agenda.' Someone like Mr Hsu could give them such an agenda.