While the defeat of Taiwan's pro-independence parties in the parliamentary election may be good news for Beijing, don't expect improvements in cross-strait relations any time soon, mainland analysts say.
Support for pro-independence forces had not expanded, a fact likely to curtail President Chen Shui-bian's provocative policies on the China issue, said Yan Anlin, deputy director of Shanghai's Taiwan Institute.
'[The bitter defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party and its allies] is a warning to President Chen Shui-bian. It shows his recent pro-independence policies have failed to represent mainstream opinion in Taiwan,' he said.
However, Professor Yan said he saw little possibility that the determined Taiwanese president would back down and give up the pursuit of independence. 'I am not optimistic that Mr Chen's defeat means sunshine after the rain for cross-strait relations. Given his personality, the ties will still be dangerous.' He doubts the opposition majority in the Legislative Yuan could stop Mr Chen from pushing the independence envelope because the alliance has failed miserably.
He said Beijing was well aware of the sensitivity of cross-strait relations and would not let down its guard. 'The key is whether Mr Chen will learn a lesson from this election result and restrain himself,' Professor Yan said.
Shen Jiru, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also expressed concern over the future of mainland-Taiwan relations.
