Following the surprise result in Taiwan's legislative election, will President Chen Shui-bian show his cards as an independence ideologue or a political pragmatist? History will remember him based on what he achieves in the next three years. This is tricky for Mr Chen, who achieved power largely by antagonising Beijing. But pushing independence is not practical. A war across the Taiwan Strait would destroy all economic and social achievements by both sides, and consign Mr Chen to the dustbin of history.
So, if he wishes to be remembered positively, Mr Chen has only one road to take. But can he close the gaps in cross-strait relations? His hands are partially tied because he was elected on a controversial ticket, preventing him moving too radically or too fast. How things develop will largely be determined by the political mood in Taiwan.
Beijing has a direct effect on this mood, and can influence it for better or worse. Every time the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office hits out at Mr Chen, it merely fans independence sentiments. Sometimes it is better to say nothing.
But if the Taiwan Affairs Office were to talk of promoting peace and economic development, rather than just directing broadsides at Mr Chen, it would demonstrate a more sensible way of handling the domestic realities. The current approach is outdated, and not in keeping with the skilful style that the new leadership has demonstrated in Latin America and Europe over recent weeks.
Moreover, both sides have failed to play the key card; cross-strait economics. Economic integration is inevitable, and obvious to anybody visiting both sides. Beijing and Taipei need to recognise the urgency of economic integration, and neither should underestimate the unpredictability of US policy, especially with Condoleezza Rice in a position of great power. Her frame of reference in understanding China is the former Soviet Union. The greatest fear on both sides of the strait is that Taiwan will become a battleground for a fundamentalist US administration 'containing' a China which they cannot understand.
Economics is where dialogue should start. While Taipei's policy is to promote diversification of investment and trade away from the mainland, this makes little sense.