Plane sales seen near US$2tr in 20 years
Boeing predicts mainland carriers to account for US$183b of global orders
Global demand for new passenger and freight aircraft will exceed US$1.9 trillion over the next 20 years, Airbus Industrie says in its latest global market forecast, while US rival Boeing says China will purchase aircraft worth US$183 billion over that period.
The European commercial aircraft maker said it expected global orders for passenger and freight planes from January this year through end-2023 to surpass 17,300, of which more than 16,600 will be passenger jets with more than 100 seats.
Many of the new aircraft will head for China.
'We've talked to some clients who predict that there will be as many as 50 to 100 new airlines in China over the next two decades,' said one industry consultant. 'That's quite an extravagant number, but it does reflect the enthusiasm and confidence of the market.'
Brian Pearce, chief economist of the International Air Transport Association, said in a speech in Geneva yesterday that China would be among the top five growth markets between now and 2008, with passenger growth expected to exceed 9 per cent a year.
'Of the three largest regions, Asia comes out on top in most economic forecasts, driven principally by China, but also by an increasingly dynamic India and a hesitant recovery in Japan,' Mr Pearce said.
Airbus anticipates a three-fold increase in global passenger traffic over the period, or an annual increase of 5.3 per cent.
It also projects that the average size of commercial aircraft will grow to 215 seats from 181 during the period. The number of scheduled passenger flights offered worldwide will more than double, and airlines will replace 9,200 aircraft during the period, Airbus said.
Growth in freight traffic will increase an average of 5.9 per cent per year over the period, generating demand for 700 new and 2,400 converted freighters.
The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, a Sydney-based consulting firm, said in a recent report the 'general consensus [is that] China's aircraft market is potentially huge'.
Mainland airlines will acquire over 100 aircraft each year for the next two decades, it said.
'Boeing puts the total sales forecast [in China] at US$183 billion over the next 20 years, and all manufacturers are eagerly positioning for a major stake in this market,' the report stated.
But various manufacturers disagree over the size of aircraft that will prove most popular with mainland airlines.
China Aviation Industry Corp and Embraer said demand for aircraft with fewer than 100 seats could add up to 700 planes in the next 20 years. Boeing believes the bulk of demand will be for 200-seater or larger jets.
