Anti-secession law could backfire on mainland, US analysts say
Putting it in writing may encourage Chen to push Beijing to the limit, they warn
Beijing's proposed anti-secession law will be counter-productive to its strategic objectives for Taiwan and may also backfire on its efforts to improve relations with Washington, US analysts say.
'There is a uniform opinion in the United States that such a law is a bad idea. What we need from Beijing is flexibility, and putting things into law paints Beijing into a corner,' said David Lampton, an expert in Sino-US relations at Johns Hopkins University.
Beijing announced last week it would table an anti-secession law that is expected to spell out the mainland's bottom line on what constitutes Taiwanese independence and under what circumstances Beijing would use unconventional means to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence.
The Foreign Ministry said the legislation was aimed at 'containing Taiwan's splittist activities' and promoting peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and, at some point, 'peaceful reunification'.
However, an unnamed US State Department official was quoted as saying the proposed law posed a 'difficult problem that is certainly a hazard to peace' and was unlikely to have any positive effect.
While recognising the law is a domestic issue and that Washington's disapproval has no legal basis, US analysts agreed with the Bush administration's assessment on several fronts.
Professor Lampton said the legislation would tie Beijing's hands in dealing with Taipei and might force the mainland into measures it did not want to take while emboldening Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian to push Beijing to the limit on Taiwanese independence.
'You are telling the other guy exactly how far he can go. Mr Chen may look at all the areas excluded and go that direction,' said Professor Lampton.
Bonnie Glaser, a cross-straits expert at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Mr Chen might interpret the law as a signal Beijing would not offer any goodwill gestures during the rest of his term.
'President Chen would probably dig in his heels and say, 'Why should I unilaterally try to improve cross-strait relations? I'm just talking to myself and don't want to play this game',' she said.
Ms Glaser warned the Taiwanese leader could use the law as a justification to renege on his promise not to declare formal independence.
If enacted, US analysts also believe the law would hurt Beijing's efforts to convince Washington to work with its efforts to prevent Taiwanese independence.
While denying there was any co-ordination between Beijing and Washington over Taipei, US analysts said the mainland had been successful in convincing the Bush administration that the island was the source of cross-strait tensions.
This new Sino-US understanding was evident during President George W. Bush's meeting with President Hu Jintao during the Apec summit in Chile last month, and in the recent statement by US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage that Taipei was a 'land mine' between the US and China.
'For President Bush, the law may now portray China as part of the problem,' said Ms Glaser.
According to US analysts, Washington is likely to lobby Beijing against passing the law and may issue even stronger public statements against the move.
However, they warned Taipei to view Washington's opposition simply as a clarification of the American position and not as an improvement in US-Taiwan relations, which have been described as troubled. 'The US statements on the anti-secession law should not soften the previous ones on Taiwan's behaviour,' Professor Lampton said. 'Mr Chen would have to be wilfully ignorant of Washington's views to construe [it as improvement of US-Taiwan ties].'
