Choices will affect balance of power
Next year, perhaps the most momentous decision in East Asia will occur in South Korea, where the choice will affect not only the Korean Peninsula's future but the balance of power in the region.
South Koreans will have three options, given the rise of anti-Americanism, the forthcoming US troop reductions and realignment, improved relations with China, a resurgence in anti-Japanese sentiments, and the demands of domestic politics.
First, 'go it alone' as has been advocated by President Roh Moo-hyun, to rely on South Korea's own resources while forsaking alliances with other nations.
The second option is to forge an alliance with China, clearly the rising power in Asia. And the third option is to revive South Korea's faltering alliance with the US even though there is no guarantee that America would reciprocate.
Self-reliant defence would be tempting as it would free Seoul from entangling alliances, permit South Koreans to pursue reunification with North Korea without outside interference, and satisfy nationalistic demands. This course, however, would seem to be unrealistic. South Korea lives in a rough neighbourhood and needs outside help to maintain security.
Forging an alliance with China would also appear to be tempting. South Korea and China are cultural cousins and trade with China has soared as has South Korean investment in the blossoming Chinese economy. The Middle Kingdom mentality in China, however, would put Seoul in danger of falling under Chinese dominance as Beijing seeks the political, economic and diplomatic clout to insist that major decisions in every Asian capital, including Seoul, meet with its approval.
Reviving the alliance with the US would require a change in South Korean attitudes. The accumulation of anti-American protests and rhetoric in recent years has made Americans seriously question their support for South Korea.
A scholar at Georgetown University and longtime student of South Korea, David Steinberg, wrote in June that American nationalism after September 11 had made the US 'much more suspicious of any anti-American sentiments for demonstrations among our friends', including Seoul.
The former US ambassador to Seoul, Donald Gregg, has cautioned that 'trust between the two countries had never been lower'.
The hectoring tone of the South Korean press after US President George W. Bush was re-elected was not likely to win points in the White House. It was ironic that South Korean newspapers criticised Mr Bush for 'unilateralism' when the US insisted that nuclear negotiations with North Korea be centred in the six-party talks in Beijing.
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington
