HONG Kong's ''Mr Toys'', Bill Blaauw, expects toy production to increase 10 to 15 per cent next year and says the Chinese exports certificate scheme will not affect contracts with mainland partners. Hong Kong's domestic toys exports fell 22 per cent to $1.7 billion in the first six months of this year but Mr Blaauw said this was due to the relocation of production to China. ''About 97 per cent of local toy manufacturers have moved their production to China, which are not included in the figure for domestic exports. We expect a 10 to 15 per cent increase, if including the production of Hong Kong-invested factories on the mainland,'' he said. Mr Blaauw was speaking after the opening of the Hong Kong International Toys and Gifts Show at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai yesterday. Mr Blaauw, who is chairman of the fair's organising committee, said he was optimistic about the toy industry, despite the worldwide recession. ''People do not buy new cars or travel in difficult times. But parents and grandparents spend more money buying toys. Also companies are inclined to spend more on advertising gifts, premiums and promotional items to improve their business,'' he said. Turning to the Chinese export certificate scheme, which is expected to be implemented in January next year, Mr Blaauw said it might create some problems but would not affect production contracts on the mainland. More than 350 exhibitors are taking part in the fair, which ends tomorrow.