How will the geopolitical map of the world be shaped by 2020? A new report by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) says that emerging global powers, led by China, will play an increasingly prominent role, sometimes jostling for influence with the United States and other countries in the western alliance, and sometimes working with them on common interests like countering transnational terrorism. The alliance itself will change, as will inter-state relations. According to the report, China, India and perhaps other rising powers like Brazil and Indonesia could render obsolete the old categories of east and west, north and south, aligned and non-aligned, developed and developing. 'A state-bound world and a world of mega-cities, linked by flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will co-exist,' the report says. 'Competition for allegiances will be more open, less fixed than in the past.' In this environment, US-Asia relations will result as much or more from what Asians work out among themselves as any action by Washington. Possibilities range from the US enhancing its role as a balance between contending forces, to it being seen as increasingly irrelevant. Either way, the likely emergence of China as well as India as major global players - similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful US in the early 20th century - will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries. In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American century', the 21st century may be the time when Asia comes into its own. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power of China and India. The focus on the two rivals, whose relations are gradually improving, is striking. The report finds that the rise of these new powers is a virtual certainty, unless either or both are hit by major internal upheavals or unless globalisation, which has benefited both, goes into abrupt reversal. The root of their success or failure will be economic. The NIC - an arm of the CIA - believes that China and India are well positioned to become technology leaders, with the next revolution involving the convergence of advanced nanotechnology, biotechnology, IT and materials technology further bolstering their prospects. Both countries, the report notes, are investing in basic research in these fields. Meanwhile, Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies. However, the US is still in a position to retain its overall lead, although it must increasingly compete with Asia to retain its edge. China's ambition to gain great power status on the world stage will be reflected in its greater economic leverage over countries in the region and elsewhere. The report observes that East Asian states are already adapting to a more powerful China by forging closer ties with Beijing. But some Southeast Asian countries, Japan and Taiwan may try to band together with the US to counterbalance China's growing influence. Meanwhile, the NIC predicts that at home, Chinese leaders will face a dilemma over how much to accommodate pluralistic pressures to relax political controls or risk a popular backlash if they do not. In such a situation, Beijing may pursue an 'Asian way of democracy', which could involve elections at the local level and a consultative mechanism at the national level, perhaps with the Communist Party retaining control over the central government. Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. This is personal comment
