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Hu Jintao

How rumour ripple turned into a flood

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Reports on Tuesday that Tung Chee-hwa would retire early ended a week of furious speculation about his future - and, effectively, two years of crippled leadership.

The rumour had been swirling around since before the Lunar New Year. What distinguished its latest variation was that it was preceded by a steady build-up of statements and official manoeuverings that culminated in publication of the retirement story in two newspapers.

Retirement rumours had dogged Mr Tung since the Article 23 and Sars crises of 2003 and that year's 500,000-strong July 1 march. But it was only after his dressing down from President Hu Jintao in Macau in mid-December that speculation really picked up.

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Then came the January 12 policy address, a retrospective look at the various failures of Mr Tung's seven years in office, roundly seen as an attempt to air the laundry before Hong Kong moved on to a new phase - with or without the former shipping magnate at the helm.

While touring Venezuela with Hong Kong journalists, Vice-President Zeng Qinghong hinted over dinner that Beijing was still far from happy with the government's performance. 'Far fetched though it may sound ... the possibility of an early departure of Mr Tung from his post before his second term expires should not be ruled out,' Post analyst Chris Yeung wrote.

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A flurry of rumours suggested a Lunar New Year resignation - new year, new start, not such a bad time to leave with the economy in reasonable order went the reasoning.

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