Top dogs have plenty of bite

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Published: 12:00am, 5 Mar 2005

Chelsea and United are among the big guns who will be warming up for Europe by taking on domestic minnows

Another important week of European action, and it should be well worth siding with some of the big guns to make an explosive start in this weekend's league games.

There is a widespread belief that the major European teams let their domestic focus drop ahead of crucial Champions League matches, but results suggest otherwise. The domestic home win rate of these teams before Champions League games is usually in line with expectations and, though there is some variation in the away win rate, it is not significant enough to be regarded as a trend.

Chelsea make particular appeal on the handicap HAD for their visit to struggling Norwich. Having ended talk of a crisis with their impressive Carling Cup final win over Liverpool, Chelsea have a run of fixtures that could seal the Premiership title in a matter of weeks, starting with tonight's live game against the second-bottom club.

There are two sides to Chelsea under Jose Mourinho - the tight, low-scoring side who go into battle against the better teams, and the equally tight, but more free-scoring side who take apart lesser teams. The statistics are compelling - in seven away games against bottom-half teams, Chelsea have scored 14 goals and conceded only two, winning six out of seven (four by a two-goal margin). Moreover, in seven away games against the worst 10 home defences in the Premiership (not necessarily bottom-half teams), Chelsea have scored 19 goals and conceded four, winning six out of seven again (but five by a two-goal margin).

Put those stats together and there is little hope for Norwich. Not only are they near the foot of the table, but they also have the worst home defence in the Premiership. And they have conceded at least two goals (more often three or four) in all seven home games against top-half teams. Norwich's open style is made for Chelsea, who are a solid banker but an even better bet at odds-against on the handicap HAD.