During celebrations to mark the internet's 35th birthday last year, Leonard Kleinrock, one of its founding fathers, lamented what his creation had yet to become. Mr Kleinrock, who invented packet switching protocol, said that fixed-line broadband connections meant the internet was always available and always on, but users could still not wirelessly plug in any device at any location. Progress towards this goal has come in fits and starts. Wi-fi hot spots at coffee shops, airports and hotels provide islands of speedy wireless access. GPRS devices enable pedestrian download rates for applications such as e-mail. Third-generation (3G) networks once promised faster downloads but their actual speeds are more akin to dial-up access. But this could soon change. Technologies such as WiMAX and high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA) - along with several others waiting to come out of the lab, such as ultra-wideband - could usher in a new computing era, one that goes by several names. Motorola describes it as an environment of 'seamless mobility' - the internet goes where you go, with users switching effortlessly between fixed and wireless networks. IBM dubs it the 'pervasive media' era and expects music and entertainment to be available any time - no matter where you are - by 2010. CLSA telecoms analyst Francis Cheung is simply calling it 4G, which he expects to arrive in 2008. The bottom line for the user is this: access to the internet everywhere, any time, on any device. While fully fledged 'internet everywhere' is at least three years away, faster mobile Web access could arrive as early as the second half of this year. Ericsson, which supplies 3G equipment to SmarTone Telecommunications, is promising to have HSDPA ready by the end of the year. Ericsson general manager of products in Hong Kong Michael Lee said: 'This year we will see the commercial launch of services. We'll see PC data cards coming out to support 1.8 megabits per second (Mbps) to start with.' Base stations that today provide access speeds of 384 kilobits per second could, with a software upgrade, offer 1.8Mbps tomorrow. Mr Lee said 3.8Mbps would be available in the first half of next year, although operators would need to deploy more equipment. WiMAX promises super-fast data rates of up to 70Mbps in a radius as large as 50km. 'Nomadic' services for portable devices such as laptops and PDAs could be available by year end, with fully mobile services available by 2007. Where is this all leading? Ubiquitous broadband entertainment. IBM warns that traditional broadcast models are dying as we divide our time among a plethora of media devices such as the iPod and its rivals. It will not be enough to broadcast Sex and the City over cable. The show - all 94 episodes - should be available for viewing on any device, be it a desktop computer or a portable media player. 'The battle for human attention demands that providers aggregate ever-smaller slices of human attention from a multiplicity of channels,' IBM said in a recent paper. One term frequently on the lips of industry players now is 'fixed-mobile convergence', the idea that users will access services without being aware of whether they are using a fixed line or wireless network. Peter Wong, chief executive of fixed-line operator Hutchison Global Communications (HGC), said: 'There will be increasing demand in the future for content and access providers to provide seamless access across networks.' Content would have the 'same look and feel, inside and outside the home'. HGC, for example, could offer seamless broadband access with sister company Hutchison Telecommunications, which has a 3G network. While the siblings might co-operate, hostility could define relations among other players in the city, which has a total of five fixed-line operators and six mobile firms. A reordering of the market might come next, with alliances or mergers being formed. Mohammad Akhtar, senior director of marketing and technology at Motorola, said: 'Networks are already converging naturally - computer [internet] networks are gaining voice functions, while mobile networks are increasingly used for data downloads. The issue is whether they converge or collide.' Collision is what mobile operators fear most. The Office of the Telecommunications Authority (Ofta) is preparing to issue broadband wireless access licences for technologies such as WiMAX, which threatens to eat into 3G revenue. At first Ofta indicated that just fixed-line operators would be allowed to bid because the services were not yet mobile. Under licence terms, mobility would not be permitted until a later date. But the regulator now suggests mobile operators can take part (see Point of View, T2). In any case, HSDPA enjoys a commanding lead over WiMAX. To begin with, 3G operators have established a footprint by rolling out W-CDMA gear, while WiMAX operators will be starting from scratch. CSFB telecoms analyst Edison Lee said: 'By the time WiMAX becomes available to the market it will be two to three years behind, by which time the costs of 3G will have dropped further.' HSDPA, however, faces several obstacles of its own. While data cards are becoming available, handsets to support the service are still two years away. Nevertheless, Mr Cheung said HSDPA was a precursor of what was to come. With 3G, users can download videos or video conference; HSDPA will enrich that experience. 'The technology is available now. It's just going to get better with high-speed internet,' he said. By the time the internet turns 40, Mr Kleinrock could have much to celebrate. Take Carrie wherever you go WiMAX Wi-fi on steroids, the technology allows for access speeds up to 70 megabits per second (Mbps). Base stations provide 'hot zones' of coverage with a radius of 50km, but Hong Kong's population density means stations are likely to be deployed closer together. By year-end, 'nomadic' services for portable devices could be available, with fully mobile services with cellular-like handoff available by 2007. HSDPA High-speed download packet access is a much-needed upgrade for 3G operators. Theoretical speed is 14.4Mbps, although equipment vendors are initially promising 1.8Mbps by year-end. Still, this is much faster than the current 384 kilobits per second. Although it is characterised as a 'software upgrade', 3G operators will need to deploy additional base stations to provide access speeds greater than 1.8Mbps. Fixed-mobile convergence The meshing of fixed-line and mobile networks. Industry players envision offering content and services across networks, wherever users are, using any device. Watching Sex and the City at home on broadband TV? Viewers will be able to take the show on the road using multiple devices in a seamless transition, without worrying whether they are accessing a Wi-fi, WiMAX, 3G or fixed-line network. Ultra-wideband Your plasma TV is in the living room, while your computer, which acts as a multimedia server, is in the study. How do you get massive video files from your computer to your TV without running unsightly cables across your flat? The answer is ultra-wideband. Initial transfer rates are promised at 60Mbps, within a range of one to five metres. The technology could be here by 2007. Digital video broadcasting for handhelds DVB-H for short, this European technology is similar to terrestrial digital video broadcasting, except viewers can use portable devices to pick up TV signals. South Korea is developing a similar technology called the terrestrial-digital multimedia broadcast system. Hong Kong has yet to embrace terrestrial digital video broadcasting, let alone a mobile version. INTERNET EVERYWHERE WiMAX takes on 3G Tuning out of broadcast TV Software will handle all communication needs Public WiFi not on agenda HK shows way in location services Reinvention only way forward Dialling up a handset debate Point of view
