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Wang Xiangwei

Taiwan's fury over the mainland's Anti-Secession Law reached boiling point in Taipei on Saturday when hundreds of thousands rallied against the legislation.

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian  and his family members joined the march, breaking a long tradition on the island of sitting presidents not taking part in political demonstrations.

Mainland officials have so far refrained from commenting,  although Xinhua carried commentaries before and after the protest  in which analysts accused the island's leadership of misleading the Taiwanese people by distorting the intent of the law.

The international media's reaction has been pessimistic, saying the passage of the law and the huge march signalled a turn for the worse in relations between Beijing and Taipei.

Some analysts have expressed concern that the two sides could be entering a worsening cycle of action and reaction.

While these concerns are  valid, there are also signs indicating that relations could become warmer, or at least more stable, despite the storm over the law.

After coming  under pressure from pro-independence groups, Mr Chen joined the march but honoured his promise not to speak, to avoid increasing  tensions.

And on the day of the march, Taiwanese tycoon Shi Wen-long  released an open letter endorsing the Anti-Secession Law and proclaiming 'we should all feel more relieved'.

Mr Shi's comments sent shockwaves through the island's political and business communities, largely because he was seen as a staunch supporter of Mr Chen and his previous pro-independence comments had been criticised by mainland media.

Some pro-independence politicians said Mr Shi made the remarks in an attempt to stop mainland authorities interfering in the investments of his conglomerate, Chi Mei,  on the mainland.

But there is more to it. The timing of Mr Shi's remarks and Mr Chen's silent march are subtle messages aimed at Beijing, which are likely to be interpreted as positive  by mainland authorities.

From Beijing's point of view, the Anti-Secession Law is aimed at curbing Taiwan's pro-independence movement, the top priority in its evolving strategy towards the island.  What better example could Beijing have than Mr Shi - widely perceived as a pro-independence supporter - endorsing the law?

For Beijing, which has become more skilful in juggling the stick and the carrot, it is also time to focus on softer tactics to ease tensions.

Mainland leaders, including President Hu Jintao   and Premier Wen Jiabao ,  have already hinted that Beijing will announce more measures to boost economic, trade and transport links between the two sides.

This was  confirmed by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,  who ended a visit to the mainland last week. She told The Washington Post  that the mainland leadership 'talked a good deal about what they were going to try to do to reduce tensions in the Taiwan Strait'.

Washington's role in relations between the mainland and Taiwan is becoming more important, a role to which Beijing is gradually becoming resigned.

With Washington and Beijing stepping up preparations for a summit  between US President George W. Bush and Mr Hu later this year, worsening ties between Beijing and Taipei are the last thing they want if this meeting is to take place.

For Beijing, the masses marching on Saturday also sent a powerful message that it has yet to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese people.

In the coming two months, Beijing has several opportunities to do so. For one, Lien Chan,  chairman of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang,  reportedly plans to visit the mainland in May or June, following a visit by KMT vice-chairman Chiang Pin-kung  to Guangzhou, Nanjing  and Beijing that starts today.

If Mr Lien meets Mr Hu in Beijing, the political significance would be huge as it would be the first time  the heads of the KMT and the Communist Party have met face to face since the 1940s.



Mainland interpreting subtle messages from Taipei's protest march