Where is Taiwan's Richard Nixon?
With main Taiwanese opposition leader Lien Chan embarking on a historic visit to the mainland - and People First Party chief James Soong Chu-yu due to follow in his footsteps - Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian is facing probably the most serious political crisis since he was elected in 2000.
The development shows that the negative fallout from Beijing's Anti-Secession Law did not completely reverse the emerging 'mainland fever' on the island. And Mr Chen and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's attempt to exploit the law to retake the initiative on cross-strait relations has failed.
Mr Chen is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, he is reluctant to let the opposition parties control the direction and pace of cross-strait relations. Therefore, he does not want to merely rubber stamp any deals between the opposition and Beijing. On the other hand, with mainland fever in the ascendancy, if Mr Chen remains passive and in denial, he risks becoming irrelevant in cross-strait ties.
Taipei's initial reaction to the new reality did not show signs of a well-thought-out and farsighted strategy. Officials tried to put the brakes on 'mainland fever' by backsliding on cross-strait exchanges. The DPP even contemplated using public power and legal means to stall the opposition leaders' visits. Only when these efforts seemed in vain did Mr Chen give his 'blessing' to Kuomintang chairman Mr Lien's historic visit.
Like any leader in his second term, Mr Chen needs to think about his legacy. Initially, he may have wanted to create a 'Republic of Taiwan', and did make some headway in the 'de-sinicisation' of Taiwan's identity. But the recent sea change in both domestic and international political landscapes apparently convinced him that he would be unable to deliver independence, and he publicly admitted it. So, Mr Chen has to rethink his strategy for the remainder of his term. In this regard, he could look to Richard Nixon as an example. The fervently anti-communist US president turned out to be the man who opened the door to communist China. In the same way, Mr Chen has a chance to 'normalise' relations with the mainland. Compared to the pan-blue opposition leaders, Mr Chen does not have the historical baggage and, therefore, is much less vulnerable to the accusation of 'selling out' Taiwan's interests. Mr Lien and Mr Soong are both mainlanders and affiliated to a party that has, in the past, suppressed Taiwanese.
But whether Mr Chen has the courage to use this advantage is still unclear. To take the initiative, he must avoid trying to deny and delegitimise anything the opposition gets from the mainland and not push back the existing cross-strait exchange programmes. He must also resist the temptation to again agitate anti-Beijing sentiment. Instead, he must develop a joint strategy with the opposition parties to strengthen Taiwan's bargaining position. For Mr Chen to become Taiwan's Nixon, he also needs a helping hand from the other side of the strait. Beijing should realise that granting high-profile visits to opposition leaders, while making the DPP look bad, cannot be a substitute for policy-making in Taiwan.
After all, only the DPP has the executive power to turn any 'consensus' reached between Beijing and Taiwan's opposition leaders into reality. Therefore, mainland officials will still have to deal with Mr Chen and his government, no matter how uncomfortable they feel about this.
The courageous decision by Mr Lien and Mr Soong to visit the mainland has paved the way for a new era of cross-strait relations. But, in the end, it is up to President Hu Jintao and Mr Chen to reconcile their differences. If they can develop a 'new thinking' for the well-being of the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, a more peaceful and prosperous relationship could well be on the horizon.
Wang Jianwei is a professor in and chair of the political science department at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point and a senior associate at the Shanghai Institute for American Studies
