Cutting off garment supplies from China will leave the US naked

'But Mr [United States Federal Reserve chairman Alan] Greenspan poured cold water on the idea that a revaluation [of the yuan] would shrink the record [US] trade deficit. Instead, it will mean that suppliers will turn to other countries such as Malaysia or Thailand for cheap textiles and other goods that China now supplies, he said.'

SCMP, May 22

IMAGINE THE TABLES turned. What reaction would you expect if a Chinese government official who speaks no English and had only rarely visited the US were to pontificate on the US economy to an audience in New York?

Mr Greenspan, do me a favour. Look at the first chart and tell me again that suppliers will just turn to Malaysia or Thailand if they encounter a hitch in sourcing cheap garments out of China. Go on. We are a bit short of laughs here at the moment.

The mainland last year accounted for 70 per cent by value of all garments exported from Asia, including from the Indian subcontinent. Thailand's share was 3.1 per cent and Malaysia 2.3 per cent. In case you ask, I have taken 80 per cent of Hong Kong's garment exports here as having come from the mainland because, in fact, they did.

Now, just how precisely do you expand Thailand's garment production capacity 10-fold to get a smooth and rapid transition from sourcing in China? How do you find and train all the skilled workers (garment-making is a skilled trade)? How do you have all the plant and equipment ready for them in sufficient time, how do you ensure the quality control, how do you make all the shipping and other needed arrangements so that everything goes tickety-tick as suppliers casually jump from China to Thailand?