There is no doubt that Donald Tsang Yam-kuen will be the next chief executive. The likelihood is that no other candidate will even be able to secure the required 100 nominations from the 800-member Election Committee to become a formal candidate.
No one doubts Mr Tsang's ability to become a good - even a great - chief executive. The only problem is the job itself. As the Singaporean statesman Lee Kuan Yew has said, the job of chief executive is an impossible one, since one person is at the same time expected to serve two masters: the people of Hong Kong and the central government.
As long as there are no conflicts between these two parties, the job will be a breeze for Mr Tsang. The problem, however, is that he is not in ultimate control.
One of former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa's key problems was that he was viewed by the public not as their chosen leader but as Beijing's man in Hong Kong, out to do the bidding of the central government. That is to say, the interests of the people did not come first.
There is a danger that Mr Tsang may, in time, come to be perceived in the same way. Just look at his policy blueprint. He promises to cultivate and maintain a good relationship between Hong Kong and Beijing. No doubt, this is vital for his high-wire act to succeed. And he pledges to 'respect the central government's constitutional power, uphold national security, and safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity'.
He very properly asks Hong Kong to trust the central government, and China's leaders to trust the people here. To show his loyalty to Beijing, he pledges to 'develop Hong Kong people's sense of pride in and responsibility towards the [special administrative region] and our country'.
Mr Tsang again calls Hong Kong 'Asia's World City', whereby the SAR is supposed to be the New York or London of Asia. But is it possible to imagine a candidate for the mayor's post in New York or London saying these things about the US or British governments?