It is a year this month since the last round of six-party talks were held in an effort to induce North Korea to end its nuclear weapons programme. As the anniversary approaches, the US is ratcheting up the pressure to end Pyongyang's stalling. It is being applied not just to North Korea - which in February declared it has nuclear arms - but also to South Korea and China. US President George W. Bush is expected to discuss with his South Korean counterpart, Roh Moo-hyun, a more punitive strategy for dealing with Pyongyang when the two meet at the White House today. But all signs point to deep divisions between South Korea and China on one side, and the US and its other Northeast Asian ally, Japan, on the other over how best to handle North Korea. With international diplomacy in disarray, Pyongyang will have more time to increase the size and improve the sophistication of an atomic arsenal that may include usable weapons. US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told a regional security conference in Singapore last weekend that Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions 'threaten the security and stability of the region, and because of their record of proliferation, it threatens the world'. He said that given North Korea's record in selling ballistic missile technologies, as well as trafficking in illegal drugs and counterfeit currency, 'one has to assume that they will sell anything and that they would be willing to sell nuclear technologies'. Washington worries that some may end up in the hands of terrorists hostile to the US. Shortly after Mr Rumsfeld's comments, a senior Pentagon official said that if the diplomatic talks did not make adequate progress soon, the Bush administration would probably decide in the next few weeks whether to take the issue to the UN Security Council. Tokyo, too, is rapidly losing patience with Pyongyang. Japan's defence minister told the Singapore meeting that Japanese opinion was shifting towards imposing economic sanctions on North Korea or bringing the matter to the UN. Both China and South Korea oppose such moves and are likely to continue doing so unless the North carries out a nuclear weapons test. South Korean Defence Minister Yoon Kwang-ung said in Singapore that Seoul should be given more time to persuade Pyongyang to return to negotiations. He said South Korea was preparing to hold ministerial meetings with the North in Seoul next Wednesday. China and South Korea have aid levers and other influence they could use to increase the pressure on North Korea. But as immediate neighbours of the North, they fear destabilising consequences from forcing the issue. China could veto any US-led move to impose UN sanctions. The consequences include a possible reprisal attack on the South, a famine-induced mass refugee exodus from the North, or even regime collapse with all its costs and strategic uncertainties. Pyongyang has repeatedly warned that it would treat any form of sanctions as an act of war and respond accordingly. Beijing and Seoul have suggested that Washington should offer Pyongyang a more attractive package of economic incentives and security guarantees to help bring about a change of heart. But the US wants to be sure that North Korea will dismantle its nuclear weapons before offering more inducements. One alternative the Bush administration is reportedly considering is a crackdown on the North's exports of missiles, drugs and counterfeit currency that are financing the nuclear programme. But without Chinese and South Korean co-operation in intercepting shipments at sea, on land or in the air, this kind of blockade will have big holes in it. Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore. This is a personal comment
