Under a watchful eye
Almost two years ago, on July 1, 2003, well more than 500,000 people marched through the streets of Hong Kong to protest against a national security bill that they feared threatened their rights and freedoms. The massive demonstration shook the Hong Kong government to its foundations and was followed by the shelving of the bill and the resignation of two principal officials.
The mainland government, too, was shocked. For six years, leaders in Beijing had relied on Tung Chee-hwa, the city's chief executive since it reverted to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, to run Hong Kong and to keep it stable and prosperous.
The protest led mainland leaders to take a new look at Hong Kong and the way it was being handled. Vice-President Zeng Qinghong was put in charge. To ascertain just what the problems were, large numbers of investigators were despatched to the city, and reports compiled for the leadership.
The upshot was that the central government decided it had to be more hands-on where Hong Kong was concerned, but to do so in a subtle fashion if possible.
The swearing in of former chief secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen as the new chief executive is the culmination of this two-year-long effort by Beijing to regain control of Hong Kong and to ensure stability in the former British colony.
To bring about this situation, Beijing used a mixture of sticks and carrots. The main carrots were the economic benefits brought to Hong Kong through the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement, which brought in large numbers of mainland tourists.
The sticks consisted of a show of force. Hong Kong was reminded that Beijing was its master and that while the city was meant to enjoy 'a high degree of autonomy', the central government's tolerance was not unlimited.
The primary targets in Hong Kong, of course, were the democrats. For months, a campaign was waged during which democratic leaders were attacked and accused of being unpatriotic and, in some cases, of supporting independence for Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The primary goal of the democrats - universal suffrage in the next elections for the chief executive and the entire legislature - was ruled out of bounds by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. These actions made many Hongkongers unhappy with the central government. For years they had held Beijing in high regard even though they scorned the Tung administration.
As a result, another large demonstration was held on July 1 last year, albeit smaller than the 2003 one. Beijing was apprehensive that popular dissatisfaction would translate into votes for the democrats during the legislative election last September. Mainland officials worked hard - and successfully - behind the scenes and, in the end, the democrats were limited to 25 seats, well under half of the 60-seat body. Beijing's efforts have been most successful. The economy is recovering strongly and the unpopular Mr Tung is being replaced by Mr Tsang, by far the most popular official in the government.
In fact, Beijing is making sure that the Hong Kong administration does not pursue any policies that might spark popular unrest. This has effectively deprived the democrats of issues. The widespread dissatisfaction within Hong Kong society has dissipated.
Mr Tsang's job is to be the interface between Beijing and Hong Kong. He has to ensure harmony and political stability by delivering good governance and economic prosperity. In this way, Beijing hopes, demands for universal suffrage can be kept in abeyance.
Whether this compact will work depends to a large extent on how Mr Tsang performs in the next two years.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator
