The Taiwanese like to joke that their national pastime is not baseball, but politics. If so, there's a great game tomorrow when Kuomintang party members directly elect a new chairman for the first time. Taiwanese politics is compelling because it is so intensely personal. Tomorrow's election will reconfigure the political landscape, no matter who wins, because current KMT chairman Lien Chan, who has lost two consecutive bids for the presidency, will make his long-delayed exit. Mr Lien openly despises President Chen Shui-bian and his upstart Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and their personal rivalry has fed the deep distrust that has paralysed Taiwanese politics for the past five years. The two candidates to replace Mr Lien are a study in contrasts. Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou is a charismatic reformer who appeals to the urban middle class with his Harvard education, international outlook and handsome looks. His opponent is the powerful speaker of Taiwan's parliament, Wang Jin-pyng. Less well known outside Taiwan, the dapper Mr Wang is a consummate, outgoing politician with a strong base in the rural south. Mr Wang has used his power over the budget to forge a political machine out of his connections with local politicians all over Taiwan. One clever TV spot shows him playing catcher in an allegorical game of baseball, where he throws out players dressed in DPP green trying to steal bases. Another shows him marching in Taipei centre with Mr Lien and People First Party (PFP) chairman James Soong Chu-yu, Mr Lien's running mate last time around. This has been read as a reminder of Mr Ma's refusal to march against Mr Chen's controversial re-election last year. Perhaps more telling, though, is the fact that Mr Wang is shown in his TV spots as a team player and a brother-in-arms. Mr Ma, in contrast, has released an ad that shows him alone, on the rugged eastern coast, appealing to voters to save him as huge waves crash around him. The message is clear - the incorruptible Mr Ma is alone in a hostile environment. And in many senses Mr Ma is alone. He is disliked and distrusted by Mr Chen's DPP, partly because he is an ethnic mainlander, but also because he served the KMT regime faithfully at a time when much of the current DPP leadership was in jail or in exile. Mr Wang, who is ethnically Taiwanese, has close personal ties with the DPP leadership. He has distanced himself only recently, and with visible reluctance, from former president Lee Teng-hui, the leader of the pro-independence movement. Mr Ma is also distrusted and disliked within his own party because powerful interests are concerned that he will keep his promise to reform the world's wealthiest party. That could mean winding down unprofitable party businesses, getting rid of assets obtained under questionable circumstances and laying off party workers. Mr Wang, in contrast, is promising to use his power in the legislature to protect the KMT. Mr Wang's other core promise is that he will be able to reintegrate the renegade PFP and its leader, Mr Soong, back into the KMT. Relations between Mr Ma and Mr Soong are icy at best. Despite his political isolation, Mr Ma is believed to be the frontrunner. The KMT rank and file desperately want to win back the presidency in 2008. They believe, probably correctly, that they are choosing not just the KMT chairman, but also the party's 2008 candidate for president. They want a candidate who can win. Mr Ma is unquestionably more presidential: he is a thoroughly modern politician with the ability to speak directly to voters. But if the soft-spoken Mr Wang's vaunted political machine can actually deliver the votes, he may give the frontrunner a real run for his money. Michael Fahey is an anchorman at Formosa TV in Taipei
