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Oh, Mr Wu, how do you manage it?

Gordon Wu

IN a shining example of what can be achieved in boom markets, Hopewell Holdings is to strip out the bulk of its core projects, reward shareholders with a one-off $2 billion which bangs in on the bottom line, and sell back those projects for more than double the price.

It seems that managing director Gordon Wu Ying-sheung will pull off this coup with flying colours: on Saturday morning, with just the Tokyo leg of his roadshow completed, the $4.77 billion placement for the newly created power station company had been fully allotted.

American pension fund managers, and institutions both local and foreign, seem to have swallowed the 40 times price-earnings multiple, the risks that go hand-in-hand with big infrastructure projects in developing countries, and the rather tarnished track record of the parent company whose earnings are more impressive in quantity than quality.

Consolidated Electric Power Asia (CEPA) will have $2.15 billion worth of debt - about half of which is from Hopewell and will be swapped for shares; a book value of US$447.85 million; and forecast earnings this year of $208 million.

The year-end dividend is to be nine cents.

Earnings per fully paid share on a non-diluted basis will be 32 cents for the year to next June 30, which puts the fledgling counter on a PE more than double that of the parent which spawned it - a shade more than 39 for CEPA against about 16 for Hopewell.

CEPA will hold its projects through subsidiary companies and the build, operate and transfer concept.

It is a model favoured by that other legendary tycoon, the late Sir Yue-kong Pao, who incorporated each ship in one company.

Broadly, CEPA will join forces with a local party, usually a utility. Both sides have rights and obligations for a finite period, at the end of which all assets are handed to the local party.

It is a sort of brains and brawn deal, CEPA providing the technical skills of design, construction and finance, and the local party bringing land and supply of fuel to the plant either at no cost or fixed price. It gives CEPA an extra lifeline - a minimum source of revenue and the possibility of more.

The local party will be charged usage fees.

Through CEPA, Mr Wu - a man of expansive vision and plans - wants to switch lights on across China and erase ''brown-outs'' from the Philippine people's consciousness.

He says: ''In Manila there are black-outs every day so demand is right there, and you make money by selling what people need and demand. We've formed a company specially to do the job.'' Long term, analysts generally agree, it is a great bet. But big cumbersome fabrications measured in megawatts rather than dollars are not going to make this the glamour listing of the year.

Mr Wu - who is likely to end up with no direct stake in CEPA, despite verbal guarantees to step in and prop up the issue if need be - says it will make money from day one.

''In existence now are five power plants and nine barges of 270 megawatts. This company already has a bigger generating capacity than Hongkong Electric.

''But this is only the hors d'oeuvre. We have been bombarded by the Chinese authorities wanting more and more.

''By standardising design and type of machines, there will be tremendous savings - to the tune of US$1 billion. So rather than build everything in haphazard form the company with its resources will just do typical model plants and pick up the savings.'' Mr Wu is very good at picking up the savings. Since 1990 he has raised about $8.78 billion. Now he is trumping that with one issue which will pull in $5.4 billion from the public and divert $8 billion from Hopewell.

Hopewell will buy into CEPA at $10 a share, staggered over two years - closer to $9 present value, assuming inflation at 10 per cent for two years.

Investors meanwhile are being asked to stump up a $2.50 premium, and to pay the whole share cost up front.

Mr Wu, an Ivy League-educated engineer, says CEPA has $2.73 billion book value, $3.77 billion present market value, topped up with cash.

This - and Mr Wu's vision - is what investors are buying for $12.50.

Hopewell buys it for $10 plus an assorted bag of goodies it is hard to get too excited about - a pledge not to compete, when presumably to do so would only cut prices to the detriment of both companies; its letters of intent; management and a host of intangibles, expertise and capabilities.

Mr Wu slaps a $1 a share price-tag on these ''free gifts'', another 50 cents to pay off the legions of US-style lawyers, bankers and financiers who flank him, and the final dollar is Hopewell's cut - only eight or nine per cent, he says, calculator abandoned.

''We get two premiums: one, the $1, and secondly we pay later. Call it an organiser's fee or whatever, but I don't think we are overcharging. My intention is not to overcharge.

''We are playing major league here. I congratulate myself we're very good in leverage, but when you do $10 billion jobs you have got to have the tools and materials to execute them.'' Investors doing their own sums may wonder if it is worth linking up with Mr Wu this time.

Credit Lyonnais analyst Paul Deayton says: ''The problem is that it is coming on to the market with such a bloated PE. The power stations last year contributed $147 million and around $100 million. Even if that grows 10 per cent it is not a massive contribution.'' Another broker said the inflated PE could give Hong Kong its own version of last month's controversy in Singapore over the listing of its expensively priced telephone company.

Mr Wu attributes the high PE to heavy reliance on existing plants to carry the load as CEPA starts out on the curve towards greatness - ultimately reaching a plateau, once more plants are in place.

According to the Hopewell computers, plotting in earnings gives an internal rate of return of 18 per cent, after tax.

Hopewell is looking for ways to fund its CEPA obligations. Oddly, property, the staple fodder of profits in recent years, is on something of a back burner.

The Hongkong International Trade and Exhibition Centre in Kowloon, due for completion around this time next year, might be kept for its recurring income, and 20 Broadwood Road, Happy Valley - which had been slated as the next saleable block - will likewise be kept, Mr Wu says.

''We still want to keep Broadwood Road as an investment. We have sold the company half, but have still not decided on the rest.

''When we see the appreciation curve nearly there, then we will get the hell out and find something that will grow fast,'' he says.

At June 30 this year, Hopewell had bank balances and cash of $2.92 billion, securities worth $149 million, properties worth $7.84 billion and total shareholders' equity of $17.19 billion.

Total indebtedness was $3.93 billion, all in bank loans.

Hopewell will again rely heavily on project financing for its infrastructure profits, and further spin-offs could provide an almost ceaseless stream of capital.

WI Carr senior analyst Alan Wong Tin-lun says: ''This CEPA issuance is going to help generate a lot of income, and that's profit to Hopewell. They are also injecting the assets of the power plants at fair market value, so will realise $732 million between the cost and fair market value.

''All that hits the bottom line. Most people realise it's not fair, and that it is what they have done for the past years. Core earnings of the company are rather small so they have to survive on selling off the treasury portfolio, property and assorted other assets.

''The quality of the earnings of this business are not that great and they are surviving on selling the farm down.'' Mr Wu - not surprisingly - rebuts the criticism. He says property is a sunset industry, and he is getting out at the top.

''People criticise the quality of earnings,'' he said. ''But it's like trading away Joe Montana for a quarter-back or Kevin Keegan in his twilight years to get a young up-and-coming player.''

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