As the dust settles after Hong Kong's leadership change, the future of the pan-democracy camp looks bleak. The disappearance from the political scene of the unpopular chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, sparked a revival of public confidence in the government. But, with his departure, the pan-democracy force appears to have lost its major cause - just as rival parties are gaining in strength and putting its survival in imminent danger. The pro-Beijing leftist camp has recently completed its party restructuring, producing a broad campaign strategy for elections in the next three years. That restructuring began with the merging of the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) with its sister party, the Hong Kong Progressive Alliance (HKPA), after the latter's complete defeat in the Legislative Council election last year. The consolidation aimed to prevent the waste of the camp's resources. But it also helped the DAB reinvent itself from a grass-roots into a broadly based party, by absorbing HKPA members representing business and commercial interests. The success of the DAB's self-reinvention can be seen in the composition of its new standing committee, which includes the daughter of a prominent industrialist, a former government official and managers from top corporations in Hong Kong. The camp's political ambition is reflected in the transformation, at the same time, of the Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), a core grass-roots group. Last week, the FTU declared it was repositioning itself as a political group that would run candidates for elections under its own banner, although it stopped short of calling itself a party. The FTU's repositioning is by no means an accident, but an integral part of a well-orchestrated strategy of the leftist camp to attract votes from a wide constituency in elections. The logic goes like this. The reinvention of DAB as a broadly based party entails changes in its political platform. Those changes are likely to trigger internal conflicts between the new and old members, while agitating its traditional supporters. A repositioned FTU thus serves as an alternative to the DAB. It can continue to hold on to its traditional supporters while taking the heat off the DAB. This means the leftist camp has two political parties, each with a distinctive identity, broadening the overall political base of the leftist camp. The camp's restructuring has a clear purpose in view. With the election of a new chief executive to take place in 2007, a new Election Committee will be selected next year. Although the total number of committee members is yet to be finalised under the current constitutional review, it is widely expected that the number will be increased significantly. The number of seats in the Legco of 2008 is also expected to rise as a result of the constitutional review. The increase will be equally divided between candidates from geographical districts and functional constituencies, as stipulated by the National People's Congress Standing Committee last year. In addition, district council elections will be held in 2007, further expanding the political space available for newcomers. Hopefully, the savvy moves of the leftist camp will serve as a wake-up call for the pan-democracy camp. The new seats in the future Election Committee and Legco, as well as possible vacancies in district councils, should not be left uncontested. It is time for the pan-democracy camp to engineer its own strategies for the coming elections. Without victories in the small battles, the war for democracy is unlikely to be won. Kitty Poon is a Hong Kong-based commentator
