Australia plays it down the middle
Last week, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer provided an emphatic response to those who believe Australia might one day have to choose between its old partner, the US, and its new buddy, China. In his view, Australia can have its cake and eat it too, when it comes to playing the US-China political axis.
Not that Mr Downer's thoughts on the matter will convince everyone, particularly in light of a recent report from the Pentagon, which rather chillingly noted: 'Current trends in China's military modernisation could provide [it] with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia - well beyond Taiwan - potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region.'
The Downer 'doctrine' was enunciated in a speech delivered to an audience of foreign diplomats in Canberra. He said that those who argue the 'fork in the road' analogy about Australia and its relationships with China and the US were 'fundamentally mistaken'.
In Mr Downer's view, it 'is not inevitable - indeed, it is not likely - that an irreconcilable, increasingly destabilising and ultimately confrontational strategic rivalry between China and the US will develop,' he told his audience. Nor, he said, 'is it likely that countries like Australia will be confronted by some great strategic choice between starkly opposed alternatives.'
Australia's relationships with China and the US are not directly comparable, according to Mr Downer: 'Australia's relationship with China is very important and fast expanding. It is also qualitatively different from the relationship we share with the US.'
And as he looks into his crystal ball, on behalf of the Australian government, he sees 'a confident, peaceful and prosperous China with an open, market economy and constructively engaged in global and regional institutions, as an enormous asset for the Asia-Pacific region and the wider world'.
Australia's best interests are served by ensuring the wheels of co-operation and friendship with China are well oiled, according to Mr Downer.
'Above all,' he noted, 'we are realistic in our recognition that we will advance Australia's interests with China best by co-operating on shared objectives, rather than focusing relentlessly, intensively and disproportionately on those matters where our experience and perspectives differ.'
But this rather benign view of the Asian future is seemingly at odds with that posed by the Pentagon report, which damns as naive the 'cliche out there that all they're focusing on is their economic [growth], that they just want to be fat, happy communists', as one Pentagon official put it.
The Pentagon's review, described by Kurt Campbell, a former Clinton administration official, as more 'alarmist' than those issued in previous years, is music to the ears of the neoconservatives in Washington. The irony is that the US neoconservatives and Mr Downer would normally be on the same side on such matters. Mr Downer can sound as bellicose as the best in Washington when it comes to the necessity for the war in Iraq and decrying the European view of the post-September 11 world.
There is no doubt, however, that the multibillion-dollar economic relationship Australia is fostering with China - the two countries have just announced a formal agreement on the supply of uranium from Australia to China for energy purposes - is driving Mr Downer's reluctance to take sides between the US and China. For now, at least.
Greg Barns is a political commentator in Australia and a former Australian government adviser
