We at the Evian Group are very concerned that the Doha process of trade talks is paralysed. All of us should be concerned. In spite of many appeals from different quarters, policymakers seem both deaf to, and hostages to, narrow political constituencies.
Following the collapse of the talks in Cancun in 2003, a package was formulated in July last year. The comment made at the time was that 'the devil lies in the details'. Obviously the devil has been successful, as policymakers have not succeeded in rising above the details. They seem oblivious to the far broader challenges and opportunities that confront us. If we stay in this rut, the consequences are going to be costly indeed.
That is the reality. And the key point is that many of the challenges are potentially highly positive. But if they are mismanaged, the opportunities will turn to threats and possibly tragedies. The following are key reasons why it is crucial that the Doha Round is concluded successfully on the basis of an ambitious and courageous agenda.
First, China - the huge new kid on the trading block. A robust system based on multilateral rules is essential for China's entry. There have been a number of tensions and disruptions already over textiles and energy, for example, and inevitably there will be more to come. But the advantages of having China in the system are clearly enormous.
Second, demographics. We have said this over and over again. Although the north may be ageing, the populations in most of the south are booming. Growth and especially job creation is desperately needed.
Third, global inclusion and integration. Why is it that we have allowed ourselves to fall into a pattern characterised by confrontation between north and south, between industrialised and developing countries? This is absurd. For the most part our economies, markets, skills and especially demographics are highly complementary. There are great gains to be made from collaboration and integration; only losses are to be had from confrontation and disintegration.