Since releasing its proposals for political reform last week, the government has been lobbying for public support with a series of magic numbers: the Election Committee for the next chief executive will be doubled to 1,600 members. More than 60 per cent of the Legislative Council seats will be democratically returned. More than 3 million voters will be given a bigger role through the proposed electoral reforms. Out of a total of 529 district council members, only 102 are government-appointed. Those numbers are the measure of reforms that go as far towards democracy as it is possible to do under the current circumstances, the government argues. Now consider a different set of numbers. Various polls show a consistent figure of about 60 per cent of Hongkongers who support full universal suffrage by 2007 and 2008. A similar percentage of voters backed candidates campaigning for early universal suffrage in the last Legco election. The first indirect election to Legco was held 20 years ago, followed by geographical polls six years later. The appointed seat system in district councils was abolished 10 years ago, but reinstated after 1997. In the lead-up to December 21, when the government package will be put to a vote in Legco, a two-thirds majority - or 40 votes - will become the make-or-break figure. The government has 34 secure votes, so the current guessing game is which six members of the pro-democracy camp are likely to change sides, allowing the reform to pass. Confronted, if not confused, by all these numbers, ordinary people can be pardoned for feeling bewildered about how this links to the goal of universal suffrage as enshrined in the Basic Law. Officials have pledged that the number of traditional functional constituency seats in Legco will be frozen. But they did not go further, such as promising steps to broaden the electoral base of the existing polls or to phase out functional constituencies by 2012. Officials insisted on the importance of the appointed district council seats in district affairs, and gave no intention of abolishing the system or even reducing the number of seats in 2007. Nor have they entertained the demand for a timetable, or road map, of universal suffrage. Officials argued it would be easier to produce one after there was a strong popular consensus that the necessary conditions, such as party politics and political talents, had reached a mature level. Government intransigence on the issue of appointed seats - and a lack of commitment to change or abolish functional constituency polls - are signposts pointing in the opposite direction from universal suffrage. But, likening himself to a salesman, Chief Secretary Rafael Hui Si-yan said he was confident the electoral reform blueprint was a good product. Putting aside the element of appointed seats, there is no denying the electoral package - specifically the new functional constituency seats and Election Committee members - represents substantive progress in democratisation, at least in numerical terms. The key to assessing the element of democracy in the blueprint, however, lies not with comparing numbers. It needs to be studied in the context of whether it marks a clear, concrete step towards the destination of full universal suffrage. The package is no doubt important. But it would be far more important for the government to convey, through reforms for 2007-2008 and preparations for universal suffrage, that it is committed wholeheartedly to full democracy. Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large
