Hong Kong has enjoyed a period of relative political tranquility in the months since Tung Chee-hwa resigned as chief executive. But as the long-awaited bid to introduce constitutional reforms reaches its climax, there is every possibility the climate will change. Signs of rising temperatures have begun to emerge this week.
On Tuesday, the Hong Kong edition of the state-owned China Daily newspaper ran a commentary that declared the setting of a timetable for universal suffrage after 2008 was both unlawful and impractical. The commentary gives a strong indication of the view from Beijing and is consistent with comments made in recent weeks by Hong Kong officials.
Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen said in August that the setting of a timetable could not yet be done. Constitutional affairs chief Stephen Lam Sui-lung argued last month that the National People's Congress Standing Committee had not authorised the chief executive to handle constitutional development after 2008. Mr Tsang, visiting the US last week, put it more bluntly. 'We are not masters of our fate,' he said.
The China Daily commentary seeks to provide a legal basis for ruling out a timetable. It strikes at the heart of one of the key demands of the pro-democracy camp in relation to the proposed reforms. The reaction from some democrats has, therefore, been predictably strong. One described the commentary as 'intimidation'.
There is a danger of the whole process descending into a divisive confrontation that will benefit no one, certainly not Hong Kong. The government seems set on pushing through its proposals in their existing form. The democrats are also standing firm, with a demonstration planned for December 4. Former Democratic Party leader Martin Lee Chu-ming is now planning a trip to the United States to discuss constitutional reform - a move that is almost certain to prompt an angry reaction from the mainland.
It is a time for all sides to remain calm and to exercise restraint. The laying down of a timetable for universal suffrage would be a helpful step. It would ease concerns about the slow pace of democratic reform and remove doubts about whether the central government intends to reach the Basic Law's ultimate aim sooner rather than later. Contrary to Mr Lam's remarks yesterday, Hong Kong is ready for it.